Tropical cyclones and climate change

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Knutson, Thomas R.; Kossin, James P.; Lee, T.-C.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Patricola, Christina M.

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2020.01.004

Cited by 97 publications

(71 citation statements)

References 128 publications

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“…However, it strengthens in terms of the TCs intensity and rainfall. Their study identified the correlation between the intensifying TC related rainfall with mostly an increase in moisture convergence -mostly from an increase in water vapor and evaporation [19]. In comparison, the findings of their study regarding the strengthening of TCs is consistent with the results gathered, evidently shown in the decadal differences in terms of rainfall quantity.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 66%

A climatological study of typhoons over the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1989–2018

et al. 2020

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The Philippines is in the Western North Pacific region, where it is a recipient of several weather disturbances such as tropical cyclones. This study aims to determine trends and periodicities of typhoons (TY) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and the rainfall they brought in a 30-year period (1989–2018) for future forecast and disaster risk mitigation efforts of these TY. These TYs are raised when TC’s sustained winds are 118 kph and above. Frequency analysis of TY is done to determine the trends and periodicities in terms of the yearly total occurrence, number of TY that made landfall, distribution of TY classification, and their seasonal variation. The results showed that with PAR the yearly total occurrence of TY seems to have an approximately 12-year periodicity where maximum occurrence was observed around the years 1994, 2004, and 2014 while minimum occurrence was observed in years 1989, 1999, and 2010. Also, track data shows that only 32 % of these TY made a landfall within PAR. Out of the three regions in the Philippines, Luzon Island is the region where most of the severe typhoons made landfall at 80 %. Moreover, TYs occurred mostly during September to November where the transition period between the northeast monsoon and south west monsoon usually occurs. Also, rainfall during which these TYs have occurred were obtained from five synoptic stations across the Philippines. It showed from 1989 to 1998, the total yearly rainfall brought by these TYs ranged from 804 mm to 1 912 mm. But from 1999 to 2018, these TYs brought more rain where their total yearly rainfall ranged from 2 844 mm to 4 941 mm.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 66%

A climatological study of typhoons over the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1989–2018

et al. 2020

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“…Storm dynamics are complex 21 . Both the spatial and temporal patterns of storms are subject to several forcing factors including global warming 5 . Storm intensity is partially the product of sea-surface temperature which is expected to continue rising with global warming 22 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To date, the relationship between migration pathways and storm exposure has not been explored and the frequency of storm encounters on the open ocean is wholly unknown. With projected increases in the intensity and frequency of strong Atlantic storms as global temperatures continue to rise 4 , 5 , the demographic consequences of storm encounters may have implications for the ongoing evolution of migration routes and/or the persistence of migrant populations.…”

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confidence: 99%

Whimbrel populations differ in trans-atlantic pathways and cyclone encounters

Watts

Smith

Hines

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Each year hundreds of millions of birds cross the Atlantic Ocean during the peak of tropical cyclone activity. The extent and consequences of migrant-storm interactions remain unknown. We tracked whimbrels from two populations (Mackenzie Delta; Hudson Bay) to examine overlap between migration routes and storm activity and both the frequency and consequence of storm encounters. Here we show that Mackenzie Delta and Hudson Bay whimbrels follow different routes across the ocean and experience dramatically different rates of storm encounters. Mackenzie Delta whimbrels departed North America from Atlantic Canada, made long ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 5440 ± 120.3 km) nonstop flights far out to sea that took several days ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 6.1 ± 0.18) to complete and encountered storms during 3 of 22 crossings. Hudson Bay whimbrels departed North America from the south Atlantic Coast, made shorter ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 3643 ± 196.2 km) nonstop flights across the Caribbean Basin that took less time ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 4.5 ± 0.29) to complete and encountered storms during 13 of 18 crossings. More than half of Hudson Bay storm encounters resulted in groundings on Caribbean islands. Grounded birds required longer ($$\bar{x}$$ x ¯ = 30.4 ± 5.32 days) to complete trans-Atlantic crossings and three were lost including 2 to hunters and 1 to a predator. One of the Mackenzie Delta whimbrels was lost at sea while crossing the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Whimbrels use two contrasting strategies to cross the Atlantic including (1) a long nonstop flight around the core of storm activity with a low likelihood of encountering storms but no safety net and (2) a shorter flight through the heart of Hurricane Alley with a high likelihood of encountering storms and a safety network of islands to use in the event of an encounter. Demographic consequences of storm encounters will likely play a role in the ongoing evolution of trans-Atlantic migration pathways as global temperatures continue to rise.

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“…A number of recent papers (Wang and Lee, 2008;Knutson et al, 2010;Emanuel, 2013) have documented global increases in the proportion of very intense cyclones as well as latitudinal trends in maximum tropical cyclone (TC) intensity, which are consistent with future climate projections. A detailed review of the behavior of TCs (Walsh et al, 2019) concluded that it remains uncertain whether past changes in TC activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes, while concerns remain about the temporal homogeneity of the best record (Landsea et al, 2006;Mann et al, 2007). Another study (Mann et al, 2009) found that re-cent increases in the frequency of intense TCs in the North Atlantic (NA) were the product of reinforcing effects, such as La Niña-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing frequency in off-season tropical cyclones and its relation to climate variability and change

Ayala

Méndez‐Tejeda

2020

Weather Clim. Dynam.

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Abstract. This article analyzes the relationship between off-season tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and climate variability and change for the Pacific Ocean and Atlantic Ocean basins. TC track data were used to extract the off-season storms for the 1900–2019 period. TC counts were aggregated by decade, and the number of storms for the first 6 decades (presatellite era) was adjusted. Mann–Kendall nonparametric tests were used to identify trends in decadal TC counts and multiple linear regression (MLR) models were used to test if climatic variability or climate change factors explained the trends in off-season storms. MLR stepwise procedures were implemented to identify the climate variability and change factors that explained most of the variability in off-season TC frequency. A total of 713 TCs were identified as occurring earlier or later than their peak seasons, most during the month of May and in the West Pacific and South Pacific basins. The East Pacific (EP), North Atlantic (NA) and West Pacific (WP) basins exhibit significant increasing trends in decadal off-season TC frequency. MLR results show that trends in sea surface temperature, global mean surface temperature and cloud cover explain most of the increasing trend in decadal off-season TC counts in the EP, NA and WP basins. Stepwise MLR results also identified climate change variables as the dominant forces behind increasing trends in off-season TC decadal counts, yet they also showed that climate variability factors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation also account for a portion of the variability.

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Tropical cyclones and climate change

Cited by 97 publications

References 128 publications

A climatological study of typhoons over the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1989–2018

A climatological study of typhoons over the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1989–2018

Whimbrel populations differ in trans-atlantic pathways and cyclone encounters

Increasing frequency in off-season tropical cyclones and its relation to climate variability and change

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