Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest Pacific: Spatial Patterns and Relationships to Southern Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperature

Basher, Reid E.; Zheng, Xiang-Min

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1249:tcitsp>2.0.co;2

Cited by 129 publications

(117 citation statements)

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“…Dvorak current intensity (CI) number for tropical cyclones, equivalent 1 and 10-minute sustained winds and comparison minimum central pressure given by Dvorak's (1975Dvorak's ( , 1984 methodologies. Basher & Zheng (1995). They noted that for the eastern region of the central South Pacific, i.e.…”

Section: Relationships Between Measured Cyclone Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive

Terry¹,

Gienko²

2010

Clim. Res.

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This study analyses the regional cyclone archive for the tropical South Pacific (160°E-120°W, 0°-25°S) maintained by the designated Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre located at Nadi in the Fiji Islands. The historical cyclone record was examined over 4 decades from the 1969-1970 cyclone season to the 2007-2008 season. Cyclogenesis origins, minimum pressures, durations and track parameters (azimuth and length) of 291 individual storms were investigated. Temporal variability in separate cyclone parameters was highly variable but not necessarily matching on an interannual basis. Anomalous periods of cyclone behaviour can be detected in 1976, 1981, 1983, 1991, 1998, 2001-2002 and 2003. Strong and significant inter-relationships are indicated between storm longevity, track length and minimum sea-level pressure (MSLP) attained, and also between seasonally averaged measures of latitude of cyclone origin and the strength of the Southern Oscillation Index and Multivariate ENSO Index. Yet no overall long-term linear trends were detected in the data, with the exception of MSLP which showed a spurious decreasing trend -a problem already highlighted in other cyclone archives. These findings suggest that the South Pacific cyclone basin and the islands therein will continue to experience strong but irregular interannual fluctuations in cyclone and track characteristics. Such anomalies will remain a much more dominant feature of temporal patterns than possibly evolving changes in long-term average cyclone activity resulting from climate change.

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Section: Relationships Between Measured Cyclone Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive

Terry¹,

Gienko²

2010

Clim. Res.

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“…The interannual variability of the SPCZ location and TC activity in the Australian/western Pacific have been investigated mainly with respect to their relationship with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been shown that El Niño (La Niña) events tend to occur accordingly with a north-eastward (south-westward) displacement of the SPCZ (Trenberth 1976;Folland et al 2002) and of a similar displacement of the TC genesis region in the south-western Pacific (Revell and Goulter 1986;Hastings 1990;Basher and Zheng 1995;Kuleshov et al 2008), while decreasing (increasing) TC activity near Australia (Nicholls 1985;Holland et al 1988;Evans and Allan 1992;Ramsay et al 2008). Although the SPCZ and the region of TC activity in the southwest Pacific are displaced in a similar fashion during ENSO events, the detailed mechanisms and the extent to which SPCZ controls the large scale environment favouring cyclonic activity have not yet been investigated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

et al. 2009

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The interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and its influence on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the South Pacific are investigated using observations and ERA40 reanalysis over the 1979-2002 period. In austral summer, the SPCZ displays four typical structures at interannual timescales. The first three are characterized by a diagonal orientation of the SPCZ and account for 85% of the summer seasons. One is close to climatology and the other two exhibit a 3°northward or southward departure from the SPCZ climatological position. In contrast, the fourth one, that only encompasses three austral summer seasons (the extreme 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Niño events and the moderate 1991/1992 El Niño event), displays very peculiar behaviour where the SPCZ largely departs from its climatological position and is zonally oriented. Variability of the western/central Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) is shown to modulate moisture transport south of the equator, thereby strongly constraining the location of the SPCZ. The SPCZ location is also shown to strongly modulate the atmospheric circulation variability in the South Pacific with specific patterns for each class. However, independently of its wide year-to-year excursions, the SPCZ is always collocated with the zero relative vorticity at low levels while the maximum vorticity axis lies 6°to the south of the SPCZ position. This coherent atmospheric organisation in the SPCZ region is shown to constrain tropical cyclogenesis to occur preferentially within 10°south of the SPCZ location as this region combines all the large-scale atmospheric conditions that favour the breeding of TCs. This analysis also reveals that cyclogenesis in the central Pacific (in the vicinity of French Polynesia) only occurs when the SPCZ displays a zonal orientation while this observation was previously attributed to El Niño years in general. Different characteristics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Pacific equatorial warming are shown to impact differently on the SPCZ position, suggesting that for regional scales, such as the South Pacific, the SPCZ classification is more appropriate than a simple ENSO index to characterize TC interannual variability. These findings suggest that forecasting the strength of El Niño through SST variations in the eastern Pacific may not be sufficient to accurately predict cyclogenesis in the South Pacific, especially east of the dateline.

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“…Nicholls 1979Nicholls , 1984Nicholls , 1985Nicholls , 1992Revell and Goulter 1986a,b;Dong 1988;Hastings 1990;Solow and Nicholls 1990;Evans and Allan 1992;Basher and Zheng 1995;Nicholls et al 1998). Much less work has been performed in the Australian region on the relationship between tropical cyclone formation and variations in the atmosphere and ocean on time scales of a decade or more, known as decadal or interdecadal variations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal variability in north‐east Australian tropical cyclone formation

Al-Jiboori

Yumao

Yongfu

2001

Atmospheric Science Letters

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Tropical Cyclones in the Southwest Pacific: Spatial Patterns and Relationships to Southern Oscillation and Sea Surface Temperature

Cited by 129 publications

References 0 publications

Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive

Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive

Interannual variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone and implications for tropical cyclone genesis

Interdecadal variability in north‐east Australian tropical cyclone formation

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