Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) and TC landfall in Japan are investigated by collecting historical TC track data and meteorological observation data starting from the mid-nineteenth century. Historical TC track data and TC best track data are merged over the WNP from 1884 to 2018. The quality of historical TC data is not sufficient to count the TC numbers over the WNP due to the lack of spatial coverage and different TC criteria before the 1950s. We focus on TC landfall in Japan using a combination of TC track data and meteorological data observed at weather stations and lighthouses from 1877 to 2019. A unified TC definition is applied to obtain equivalent quality during the whole analysis period. We identify lower annual TC landfall numbers during the 1970s to the 2000s and find other periods have more TC landfall numbers including the nineteenth century. No trend in TC landfall number is detected. TC intensity is estimated by an annual power dissipation index (APDI). High APDI periods are found to be around 1900, in the 1910s, from the 1930s to 1960s, and after the 1990s. When we focus on the period from 1977 to 2019, a significant increasing trend of ADPI is seen, and significant northeastward shift of TC landfall location is detected. On the other hand, TC landfall location shifts northeastward and then southwestward in about 100-year interval. European and US ships sailed through East and Southeast Asian waters before the weather station network was established in the late nineteenth century. Then, we focus on TC events in July 1853 observed by the US Naval Japan Expedition of Perry’s fleet and August 1863 by a UK Navy ship that participated in two wars in Japan. A TC moved slowly westward over the East China Sea south of the Okinawa Islands from 21 to 25 July 1853. Another TC was detected in the East China Sea on 15–16 August 1863 during the bombardment of Kagoshima in southern Japan. Pressure data are evaluated by comparing the observations made by 10 naval ships in Yokohama, central Japan during 1863–1864. The deviation of each ship pressure data from the 10 ships mean is about 2.7–2.8 hPa.

Rising hazard of storm surge is consistent with sea level trend and caused by intensification and widening of tropical cyclone in Japan

“…2a). It corroborates the findings of Kubota et al (31), who detected a significant northeastward shift of TC landfall location in Japan during 1977-2019. In contrast, TC occurrence frequency has remained almost stationary in R3.…”

“…We analyzed JMA best track datasets (40) for selected TCs (n =84) that include TC central positions, intensities (Vmax), sizes (R50 and R30), and translation speeds. Reconstructed typhoon data for Japan (31) was used to collect local maximum wind speed recorded at the nearest weather station or lighthouse during the passage of a TC. It needs to be noted that stations used for recording local maximum wind speed are different from tidal stations used for recording surge levels and thus, we defer to Kubota et al (31) for full details on the selection of weather stations used for recording local wind speed.…”

“…Reconstructed typhoon data for Japan (31) was used to collect local maximum wind speed recorded at the nearest weather station or lighthouse during the passage of a TC. It needs to be noted that stations used for recording local maximum wind speed are different from tidal stations used for recording surge levels and thus, we defer to Kubota et al (31) for full details on the selection of weather stations used for recording local wind speed. Although TC meteorological information available from birth to death were analyzed, we particularly compare TC meteorological conditions during landfall time frame with peak surge records.…”

Recent Relative Sea‐Level Changes Recorded by Coral Microatolls in Southern Ryukyus Islands, Japan: Implication for the Seismic Cycle of the Megathrust

“…Two strong tropical cyclones that hit the Japanese coasts were documented, one in 1853 mainly affecting the central Ryukyus, and one in 1863 extending from Miyako to the northern Ryukyus (Kubota et al., 2021). The 1863 typhoon could have impacted the microatolls but the sea‐level drop would have been sudden (Weil‐Accardo, Feuillet, Jacques, Deschamps, Saurel, et al., 2016; Figure 8) and it is not what we observed in any of the events 1 to 11 except event 6 in Irabu (19 cm in one year in 1946 ± 2).…”

Changes in extreme rainfall over mainland China induced by landfalling tropical cyclones

“…Also, other factors such as ENSO, weather systems, water vapor transport, and urbanization, all have effects (to varying degrees) on LTCER [17,[71][72][73][74]. Moreover, some recent studies have extended the time series of TCs to the late 19th century in East Asia [75,76], and these new findings can be combined with historical precipitation data to further study the changes in LTCER at the centennial scale. In addition, past observations show that the LTCER over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin has increased; plus, the future change in the flood risk caused by LTCER in this region is also worthy of further discussion.…”