Tropical Pacific – mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times

Graham, Nicholas E.; Hughes, Malcolm K.; Ammann, Caspar; Cobb, Kim M.; Hoerling, Martin P.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Kennett, James P.; Rein, Bert; Stott, L. D.; Wigand, Peter E.; Xu, Taiyi

doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9239-2

Cited by 203 publications

(188 citation statements)

References 142 publications

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“…The peak arises in the latter case from a combination of (see Figure 2) La-Niña 5 like conditions during the Medieval era which have been discussed elsewhere [21][22][23] and relatively warm SSTs in the tropical North Atlantic at this time 24,25 , with both of these factors playing a substantial role in the statistical model predictions (Supplementary Information). In contrast, this interval is followed by a combination of relatively cold Atlantic SSTs and more El Niño-like conditions in the tropical Pacific leading to a relative lull in modeled TC activity in subsequent centuries prior to the modern increase.…”

mentioning

confidence: 82%

Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years

Mann

Woodruff

Donnelly

et al. 2009

Nature

237

222

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A number of past studies have attempted to place modern Atlantic TC activity in a longer-term context using regional proxy evidence of past landfalling Atlantic hurricane activity [6][7][8] . Some studies 4 have sought to infer past changes in activity from plausible local conditioning factors such as wind strength and Sea Surface Temperature (SST), though the interpretations of these studies have been contested 5 . Qualitative comparisons between paleo-hurricane reconstructions appear to show some temporal coherence 8-9 .However, no past studies have attempted to synthesize multiple records from distinct regions into a basin-integrated reconstruction of Atlantic hurricane activity. Moreover, no past studies have sought to quantitatively relate estimated variations in hurricane or TC activity to reconstructions of the key large-scale climate factors known to have a 3 significant influence on modern Atlantic TC activity. Here we produce an empirical record of past landfalling Atlantic hurricane activity by combining information from multiple sedimentary records of TC-induced overwash. Further we compare these resulting estimates to independent statistical model predictions of past TC activity driven by proxy-based large-scale climate reconstructions.Sediment-based overwash reconstructions of TC landfall are limited in number, but span a wide geographic area across the North Atlantic basin impacted by hurricanes. Our compilation includes (Figure 1) a site from the Caribbean (Vieques, PR 6,9,10 ), one from the U.S. Gulf Coast 11 , one from the southeastern U.S. coast 8 , three from the mid-Atlantic coast (one from New York 9 and two from New Jersey 12,13 ) and two from southeastern New England (one from Rhode Island 14 and another from Massachusetts 15 ) yielding 5 distinct regional series. We obtained a probabilistic estimate of past basin-wide landfalling hurricane activity using an appropriately weighted combination of the information from these 5 regional series, and incorporating radiocarbon age model uncertainties.An independent estimate of past tropical cyclone activity was obtained using a statistical model for Atlantic TC counts. This previously developed and validated 16,3 statistical model conditions annual Atlantic TC counts on three key large-scale climate state variables tied to historical variations in Atlantic TC counts: (i) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the main development region (MDR) for tropical Atlantic TCs, which reflects favorability of the local thermodynamic environment, (ii) the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which influences the amount of (unfavorable) vertical wind shear, and (iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phenomena which affects the tracking of storms (which influences how favorable an environment they 4 encounter). The statistical model was driven by proxy-based reconstructions 17,18 of these three state variables (Figure 2), yielding a predicted history of Atlantic TC counts for past centuries We compared the sediment-based record against the above statistical e...

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confidence: 82%

Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years

Mann

Woodruff

Donnelly

et al. 2009

Nature

237

222

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“…Proxy data documenting drought indicate centuries-long periods of increased aridity across the central and western U.S. (Fig 2F) (25,22 ). In the Colorado and Sacramento River basins, reconstructions show decadal periods of persistently below average flows during several intervals including much of the 9th, 12th, and 13th centuries (40)(41)(42) (Fig 2E).…”

Section: Medieval Drought and Temperatures In Southwestern North Americamentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Paleoclimatic data for southwestern North America provide extensive documentation of past droughts (21,22). Records collectively suggest a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than contained in instrumental records, particularly with respect to drought extent, duration, and severity.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…Associations between SSTs and Southwestern drought during this period have been explored with paleoclimatic data and modeling (4,(33)(34)(35) and although the paleoclimatic data that document Pacific Ocean conditions during the medieval period are not in total agreement, most show temperatures in the eastern Pacific indicative of cool El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or La Niña-type conditions (22). More unequivocal evidence exists for a warm North Atlantic (36).…”

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confidence: 99%

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A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Woodhouse

Meko

MacDonald

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

342

218

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A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900-1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1°C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.climate change | water resources | paleoclimatology | medieval period C limate-change projections clearly indicate what observations already suggest: Temperatures everywhere will be warmer in the future due to anthropogenic activities. General circulation models (GCMs) project continued warming, with annual temperatures 3-5°C above current levels by the end of the century (1). As previous articles in this Special Feature have discussed, warming temperatures, even without reductions in precipitation, will have far-reaching impacts on hydrologic sustainability in the Southwest. Twenty-first century droughts will occur under warmer temperatures with greater rates of evapotranspiration than occurred during the major droughts of the 20th century. Warming may also directly and indirectly increase the propensity for droughts in the Southwest (2-4). However, major 20th century droughts pale in comparison to droughts documented in paleoclimatic records over the past two millennia (5). Thus, warm droughts of the prehistoric past might provide evidence useful in understanding the current climatological changes, and for providing scenarios for worst-case droughts of the future and evidence of hydroclimatic responses in the Southwest to warmer climatic conditions. This paper examines recent temperature-drought relations and analyzes paleoclimatic data docum...

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“…Late Holocene records indicate that intervals marked by cooler SSTs in Santa Barbara Basin were contemporaneous with low precipitation over parts of western North America Graham et al, 2007). A comparison of Santa Barbara Basin core data with the bristlecone pine record from the White Mountains of eastern California suggests correlation between cool SST and drier conditions during the last 4000 cal yr BP (Fig.…”

Section: Associated Terrestrial Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 93%

Middle Holocene climate change and human population dispersal in western North America

Kennett

Culleton

Kennett

et al. 2007

Climate Change and Cultural Dynamics

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Available climate records in western North America (7000-3800 cal yr BP) indicate a severe dry interval between 6300 and 4800 cal yr BP embedded within a generally warm and dry Middle Holocene. Dry conditions in western North America between 6300 and 4800 cal yr BP correlate with cold to moderate sea-surface temperatures (SST) and relatively high-marine productivity along the Southern California Coast evident in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Core 893A/B (Santa Barbara Basin). Based on archeological, linguistic, and genetic data, we argue for a movement of Uto-Aztecan people from western desert environments to the Southern California Coast, including the southern Channel Islands, and into portions of the Central Valley by at least 5500-4500 cal yr BP. We hypothesize that population dispersal from the desert interior was primarily in response to severe and prolonged drought and that people moved selectively to coastal and aquatic habitats because of the ameliorated effects of drought and their overall productivity.

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Tropical Pacific – mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times

Cited by 203 publications

References 142 publications

Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years

Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

Middle Holocene climate change and human population dispersal in western North America

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