Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives

Tierney, Jessica E.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Evans, M. N.; Giry, Cyril; Kilbourne, K. H.; Saenger, Casey; Wu, Henry C.; Zinke, Jens

doi:10.1002/2014pa002717

Cited by 247 publications

(288 citation statements)

References 178 publications

(229 reference statements)

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“…Our pseudoproxy network is broadly representative of the availability of annually resolved tree, coral and ice core records in the PAGES2k and Ocean2k databases [PAGES2K Consortium, 2013;Tierney et al, 2015]. We have added 32 coral record locations to the existing PAGES2k Phase 1 network, as this original network contained only 13 coral sites.…”

Section: Pseudoproxy Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era

Dee

Steiger

Emile‐Geay

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

138

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Paleoclimate data assimilation has recently emerged as a promising technique to estimate past climate states. Here we test two of the underlying assumptions of paleoclimate data assimilation as applied so far: (1) climate proxies can be modeled as linear, univariate recorders of temperature and (2) structural errors in GCMs can be neglected. To investigate these two points and related uncertainties, we perform a series of synthetic, paleoclimate data assimilation‐based reconstructions where “pseudo” proxies are generated with physically based proxy system models (PSMs) for coral δ18O, tree ring width, and ice core δ18O using two isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation models. For (1), we find that linear‐univariate models efficiently capture the GCM's climate in ice cores and corals and do not lead to large losses in reconstruction skill. However, this does not hold for tree ring width, especially in regions where the trees' response is dominated by moisture supply; we quantify how the breakdown of this assumption lowers reconstruction skill for each proxy class. For (2), we find that climate model biases can introduce errors that greatly reduce reconstruction skill, with or without perfect proxy system models. We explore possible strategies for mitigating structural modeling errors in GCMs and discuss implications for paleoclimate reanalyses.

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Section: Pseudoproxy Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era

Dee

Steiger

Emile‐Geay

et al. 2016

J Adv Model Earth Syst

138

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“…Moreover, west Atlantic SST anomalies during the MM were on average −0.21°C cooler than SST anomalies in the other (Indian, west Pacific, and east Pacific) tropical ocean basins (based on data from ref. 37; Fig. 3E), resulting in cool relative SSTs.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In contrast, in regions where ocean heat content is limited in summer (e.g., the twentieth-century east Atlantic), strong solar activity can provide a marginal SST increase necessary for cyclogenesis, resulting in more TCs. This modulation of the (14); (C) number of years per decade with more than one or four shipwrecks in TC ship ; (D) spectral solar irradiance (8); (E) tropical Atlantic SST, relative SST proxies (calculated as the residual between tropical Atlantic SST anomalies and averaged Indian, west, and east Pacific Oceans SST anomalies), and storm proxies from Cariaco Basin foraminifera (34), tropical Atlantic corals (35), a Jamaica lake sediment geochemical record (22), mean SST anomalies over the Main Development Region (36), and tropical west Atlantic, west and east Pacific, and Indian Oceans corals (37). Gray-shaded area indicates the MM (1645-1715 CE).…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Trouet

Harley

Domínguez‐Delmás

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Assessing the impact of future climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of crucial societal importance, but the limited quantity and quality of observational records interferes with the skill of future TC projections. In particular, North Atlantic TC response to radiative forcing is poorly understood and creates the dominant source of uncertainty for twenty-first-century projections. Here, we study TC variability in the Caribbean during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645-1715 CE), a period defined by the most severe reduction in solar irradiance in documented history (1610-present). For this purpose, we combine a documentary time series of Spanish shipwrecks in the Caribbean (1495-1825 CE) with a tree-growth suppression chronology from the Florida Keys (1707. We find a 75% reduction in decadal-scale Caribbean TC activity during the MM, which suggests modulation of the influence of reduced solar irradiance by the cumulative effect of cool North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, El Niño-like conditions, and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need to enhance our understanding of the response of these oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.L andfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) bring devastation to natural and human landscapes with floods, winds, and storm surges. In recent decades, TC-related human mortality and economic losses have risen in step with increasing populations in high-risk coastal communities (1). TC damage is expected to further increase in the near future with rising exposure and projected anthropogenic climate change (2). This is particularly the case for the North Atlantic Basin, which is one of the most TC-active basins globally. The development of successful adaptation and mitigation strategies relies on skillful projections of North Atlantic TC activity, as well as an improved understanding of the drivers of its variability.Modeling studies of twenty-first-century global TC activity generally converge in their projections of increased TC intensity and decreased frequency, but the magnitude range of projected North Atlantic TC variability is wide (3). Uncertainties in twentyfirst-century North Atlantic TC projections are largely driven by the chaotic nature of the climate system and by our limited understanding of TC response to radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, as well as natural variability in volcanic and solar activity (4). Response uncertainty is the dominant source of uncertainty toward the end of the twenty-first century (4), with different model runs resulting in TC responses of opposing sign to projected radiative forcing (3). Our understanding of TC response to radiative forcing-and thus the skill of future TC projections-is restricted by limitations in the time-series length and quality of observational records (5) that hinder trend detection and attribution (3).To attribute significant TC cha...

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“…For calibration and validation, a similar approach to Tierney et al [2015] was used. Two thirds of the period of overlap between the start of the passive microwave record (1979) were used as a training data set; the proxy records were regressed against the relevant sector's SIE using Geometric Mean Regression to estimate the transfer coefficient, which accounts for errors and noise in both the dependent and independent variables [Abram et al, 2010].…”

Section: 1002/2016jc012111mentioning

confidence: 99%

Century‐scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends from proxy reconstructions

et al. 2016

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Since 1979 when continuous satellite observations began, Southern Ocean sea ice cover has increased, whilst global coupled climate models simulate a decrease over the same period. It is uncertain whether the observed trends are anthropogenically forced or due to internal variability, or whether the apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by internal variability. The shortness of the satellite record is one source of this uncertainty, and a possible solution is to use proxy reconstructions, which extend the analysis period but at the expense of higher observational uncertainty. In this work, we evaluate the utility for change detection of 20th century Southern Ocean sea ice proxies. We find that there are reliable proxies for the East Antarctic, Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Weddell sectors in late winter, and for the Weddell Sea in late autumn. Models and reconstructions agree that sea ice extent in the East Antarctic, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas has decreased since the early 1970s, consistent with an anthropogenic response. However, the decrease is small compared to internal variability, and the change is not robustly detectable. We also find that optimal fingerprinting filters out much of the uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. The Ross Sea is a confounding factor, with a significant increase in sea ice since 1979 that is not captured by climate models; however, existing proxy reconstructions of this region are not yet sufficiently reliable for formal change detection.

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Tropical sea surface temperatures for the past four centuries reconstructed from coral archives

Cited by 247 publications

References 178 publications

On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era

On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Century‐scale perspectives on observed and simulated Southern Ocean sea ice trends from proxy reconstructions

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