Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 Simulations

Griffiths, Paul; Murray, Lee T.; Zeng, Guang; Archibald, Alexander T.; Emmons, L. K.; Galbally, Ian E.; Haßler, Birgit; Horowitz, Larry W.; Keeble, James; Liu, Jane; Moeini, Omid; Naik, Vaishali; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Shin, Youngsub Matthew; Tarasick, D. W.; Tilmes, Simone; Turnock, Steven T.; Wild, Oliver; Young, Paul; Zanis, Prodromos

doi:10.5194/acp-2019-1216

Cited by 41 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…The 1850 to 2000 multi-model annual mean change in surface O 3 from the CMIP6 models of 10.6 ppb is in good agreement with the 10 ± 1.6 ppb simulated by the CMIP5 models used in AC-CMIP (Young et al, 2013). An evaluation of the long-term changes in surface O 3 over the historical period simulated by the CMIP6 models at specific measurement locations is presented separately in the tropospheric O 3 CMIP6 companion paper of Griffiths et al (2020). This shows that CMIP6 models can reasonably represent long-term changes in surface ozone since the 1960s, providing a degree of confidence in the future projections of changes in the CMIP6 scenarios.…”

Section: Surface Ozonesupporting

confidence: 58%

“…The six CMIP6 models with data available for the historical experiments are evaluated against surface O 3 observations from the TOAR database over the period 2005-2014. A longterm evaluation of surface O 3 concentrations from CMIP6 models using observations compiled over the 20th century is presented separately in Griffiths et al (2020). Figure 3 shows the annual and seasonal multi-model mean in surface O 3 over the period 2005-2014 and the SD across the six CMIP6 models.…”

Section: Surface Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models

et al. 2020

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Abstract. Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

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Section: Surface Ozonesupporting

confidence: 58%

Section: Surface Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models

et al. 2020

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“…A large diversity in the simulated historical changes is shown across the different regions analysed here, with UKESM1 tending to simulate the lowest historical change and GISS-E2-1-H or BCC-ESM1 the highest. Even, though the surface response is small in UKESM1, it is shown to have larger tropospheric changes in O3 over the historical compared to other CMIP6 models (Griffiths et al, 2019). South Asia is the region with the largest diversity in simulated historical changes in surface O3 of 390 between 16 and 40 ppb.…”

Section: Merra Reanalysis Productmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…The 5 CMIP6 models with data available for the historical experiments are evaluated against surface O3 observations from the TOAR database over the period 2005-2014. A long-term evaluation of surface O3 concentrations from CMIP6 models using observations compiled over the 20 th Century is presented separately in Griffiths et al, (2019). Figure when O3 formation is enhanced by increased photolytic activity and levels of oxidants, as well as larger biogenic emissions.…”

Section: Surface Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models

Turnock¹,

Allen²,

Andrews³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants, ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5), are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth’s climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models show a consistent overestimation of observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons, with a large diversity in simulated values over northern hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated by CMIP6 models, particularly for the northern hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th Century when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants, across East and South Asia, with an increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m-3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m-3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), increases of both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m-3) are simulated across most regions. Although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important differences due to the interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The prediction of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasises the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources.

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Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Sampedro

Waldhoff

Ven

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.

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Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 Simulations

Cited by 41 publications

References 12 publications

Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models

Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models

Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

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