Trump on the Trail: Assessing the Impact of Presidential Campaign Visits on Voting Behavior in the 2018 Midterm Elections

Abramowitz, Alan I.; Panagopoulos, Costas

doi:10.1111/psq.12664

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 29 publications

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“…The literature is somewhat divided on whether visits by candidates helps, hurts, or has no effect on election results. These impacts are usually measured in the form of increased mobilization of one’s voters, and incidentally, counter-mobilization of the other candidates’ voters, and fund raising (Heersink et al, 2021 ; Abramowitz & Panagopoulos, 2020 ).…”

Section: Data Theory and Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

Covid-19 and the 2020 presidential election

Mitchell

2022

Const Polit Econ

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Whether deserved on not, US Presidents often receive the blame or the credit for the nature of the economy and direction of the country. Therefore, the status of the economy and the country in an election year can be a very important factor in election success for an incumbent President (or his party if an incumbent is not running). This is especially true in ‘battleground states’ due to the presence of the Electoral College system where Presidential candidates need only win different combinations of states in order to become President. However, the 2020 Presidential election was vastly different from past election cycles in that an additional variable, COVID-19, was added to the decision calculus of voters. Eventually, the 2020 election came down to the extremely slim margins in three states (Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin) and thin margins in two others (Pennsylvania and Michigan). This paper shows that deaths from COVID-19 at the county level played a small role in demotivating voters to turnout in 2020 to cast their vote for Joe Biden as President. In other words, without Covid-19, President Trump’s losses within these five states would have been even larger.

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Section: Data Theory and Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%