Trust: A Double-Edged Sword in Combating the COVID-19 Pandemic?

Abstract

We examine the impact of trust in combating the SARS-CoV-2 virus, that can cause COVID-19. Under normal circumstances trust is a crucial component for society to function well, but during a pandemic trust can become a double-edged sword. On the one hand, a high level of trust in society may lead to greater acceptance among citizens for public measures that aim to combat a virus. If people believe that their respective governments implement unbiased and well-informed measures, and people also believe that their fellow citizens will follow these measures, this may lead to a high general compliance in society and less people will be infected. On the other hand, trust may affect people's perception of risk and hence their behavior. If people believe that most people are trustworthy, they may be less willing to think of everyone else as a potential health threat. If people also trust the government to manage the pandemic in a competent way, their perception of the risks related to the pandemic weaken. Taken together, this may lead people in high trust societies to consider personal protective measures less important, and more people will be infected. The ambiguous effect trust may have on the outcome of a pandemic calls for a closer empirical analysis. Drawing on data from 127 countries we find that the number COVID-19 deaths decrease with trust in government and trust in science, while the number COVID-19 deaths increase with social trust. Implications of these findings for risk communication and management during a pandemic are discussed.

Fear of COVID-19 is associated with trust, subjective numeracy, and differentially with loneliness in older versus younger adults

“…However, previous research has demonstrated that variations in societal and interpersonal trust influenced one’s compliance to health directives and behaviors during the pandemic. Interestingly, increased interpersonal trust has been associated with greater COVID-19 related mortality, which was interpreted as reflecting lower fear of the illness in those who were more trusting in other’s behaviors ( Reiersen et al, 2022 ). Our observation confirmed that greater interpersonal trust is associated with less COVID-19 fear, providing support that individuals with more trust in others experience less fear of COVID-19.…”

“…A high level of trust in the government and society is associated with higher vaccination rates as observed in a sample of 177 countries with vaccine availability ( COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, 2022 ). In a study of 127 countries, greater trust in the government and science was associated with decreased mortality, although greater trust in society was associated with increased mortality ( Reiersen et al, 2022 ). The increased mortality was felt to potentially reflect the misplaced trust of others to stay home/report symptoms when sick.…”

“…The increased mortality was felt to potentially reflect the misplaced trust of others to stay home/report symptoms when sick. Not all members of society are truthful, and this might impact mortality ( Reiersen et al, 2022 ). Nonetheless, while the emergent findings on institutional trust appear consistent within the context of COVID-19, there has been little work on the role of interpersonal trust (see Wollebæk et al, 2021 ), with some studies showing both negative ( Iacono et al, 2021 ) and positive ( Kye and Hwang, 2020 ) effects of the pandemic on interpersonal trust.…”

Covid-19: did higher trust societies fare better?

“…A fifth study, including 107 countries, found three factors of importance in mitigating covid deaths—respectively, trust in government, trust in society and trust in science [ 47 ]. Here the authors found that trust in society actually had a negative impact—something they ascribed to the way in which, where high trust between people did exist, confidence about the behaviour and health status of those with whom they were mixing lead people to consider the use of personal protective measures as less important.…”

Lecciones que se pueden aprender de la pandemia: una mirada desde la salud pública

“…Otra variable para medir la disposición a la cooperación es la confianza que tienen las personas en sus gobiernos, en sus científicos y en sus conciudadanos; en países que plantearon medidas adecuadas, se ha observado que la confianza correlaciona con un mejor seguimiento de las medidas de salud pública y con una menor mortalidad. Pero, también se observa que la confianza en los conciudadanos puede tener efectos inversos a los deseados (6,7) . La tercera lección es que no existe una receta universal.…”