Trust in elections, vote buying, and turnout in Latin America

Abstract

a b s t r a c tAlthough national elections in Latin America are now described as reasonably free and fair by international observations teams, electoral processes are still affected by a series of malpractices (unequal access to the media and public resources, registration problems, vote buying). These irregularities negatively affect citizens' trust in elections. In this paper, we analyze the consequences of low trust in elections and exposure to vote buying practices on electoral participation in Latin America. Using data from the 2010 wave of LAPOP surveys, we find that perceiving that the election is unfair reduces the willingness to participate in national elections, but receiving material incentives during the campaign has the opposite effect of increasing electoral participation. We also show that the effect of trust in elections on turnout is larger in countries where voting is not mandatory.

What Explains Voter Turnout in Latin America?: A Test of the Effect of Citizens' Attitudes Towards the Electoral Process

“…In line with previous evidence across the region (Carreras and Castañeda-Angarita 2013;Carreras and İrepoğlu 2013;Carlin and Love 2015) and with my expectations, exposure to vote-buying remains a significant predictor of turnout in both models. In addition, as expected, employment status and education have a positive and statistically significant effect on turnout.…”

“…In order to do this, I assess the link between citizens' confidence in the electoral process and turnout using recent survey data from 19 Latin American countries between 2004 and 2014. To my knowledge, only one previous article has examined this relationship in the region, using survey data for the year 2010 (Carreras and İrepoğlu 2013). In this study, I extend the analysis using a larger timespan in order to better examine the impact of citizens' trust in elections on their electoral participation within and between countries over time.…”

“…Accordingly, previous research in Latin America has found that citizens who are more interested in political issues are more likely to turnout (Carlin 2006;Carreras and Castañeda-Angarita 2013;Carreras and İrepoğlu 2013). Political interest is a variable that ranges from 1 to 4 and I expect it to have a positive effect on turnout.…”

“…In turn, when voting is voluntary, citizens have to rely more heavily in this internal motivation and the impact of citizens' confidence in the electoral process will likely be stronger. In addition, in their study of the impact of trust in elections on turnout in Latin America, Carreras and İrepoğlu (2013) concluded that "trust in elections is a much stronger predictor of electoral participation in countries where compulsory voting laws do not exist" (Carreras and İrepoğlu 2013: 617). As a result, I expect compulsory*trust in elections to have a negative effect on voter turnout.…”

“…Supporters of the incumbent party showed lower levels of confidence in the integrity of the electoral process once they learned that their preferred candidate lost, whereas doubt about this process among supporters of a party that never won the elections remained consistent over time. Carreras and İrepoğlu (2013) explore the impact of trust in elections on voter turnout, going a step further with a cross-national comparison between Latin American countries. Using data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project for the year 2010, the authors find a positive and significant effect of this variable on turnout, especially in countries without compulsory voting laws.…”