Trying to Thread the Needle: The Effects of Redistricting in a Georgia Congressional District

Hood, M. V.; McKee, Seth C.

doi:10.1017/s1049096509990023

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…Much previous work has relied on imprecise measures of redrawn populations, such as the amount of overlap between a county and a congressional district, the district-level percentage of redrawn constituents, or changes in the districtlevel presidential vote (e.g., Abramowitz, Alexander, and Gunning 2006;Black and Black 2002;Gopoian and West 1984;Kousser 1996;McKee, Teigen, and Turgeon 2006;Petrocik and Desposato 1998;Swain, Borrelli, and Reed 1998;Winburn and Wagner 2010). But we join a growing number of studies that have been able to clearly differentiate between same-incumbent and redrawn voter populations with various units of aggregate-level data (see Ansolabehere, Snyder, and Hood and McKee 2009;Rush 1992Rush , 1993Rush , 2000. Likewise, our precinct-level data allow us to be confident that every precinct we refer to as "redrawn" has indeed been placed into a congressional district with a new incumbent.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 83%

“…In a series of studies, we have found at the individual level a clear relationship between redistricting and a lack of familiarity with House incumbents, controlling for a host of potential confounds, such as education, partisanship, and other variables known to be associated with political awareness and participation (Hayes and McKee 2009;Hood and McKee 2009;McKee 2008). And critically, even in the presence of these controls, redistricting leads to higher rates of nonvoting in House elections (Hayes and McKee 2009).…”

Section: Addressing the Ecological Inference Problemmentioning

confidence: 91%

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The Intersection of Redistricting, Race, and Participation

McKee

Hayes

2011

American J Political Sci

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The drawing of congressional district lines can significantly reduce political participation in U.S. House elections, according to recent work. But such studies have failed to explain which citizens' voting rates are most susceptible to the dislocating effects of redistricting and whether the findings are generalizable to a variety of political contexts. Building on this nascent literature and work on black political participation, we show that redistricting's negative effects on participation-measured by voter roll-off in U.S. House elections-are generally strongest among African Americans, but that black voters can be mobilized when they are redrawn into a black representative's congressional district. Our findings, based on data from 11 postredistricting elections in five states from 1992 through 2006, both expand the empirical scope of previous work and suggest that redistricting plays a previously hidden role in affecting black participation in congressional contests.

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Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Addressing the Ecological Inference Problemmentioning

confidence: 91%

The Intersection of Redistricting, Race, and Participation

McKee

Hayes

2011

American J Political Sci

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“…Most of this research, however, has focused on the elite‐level consequences of redistricting, considering questions of how redistricting affects who is elected. For example, studies have considered the effects of redistricting on incumbents’ reelection prospects (Desposato and Petrocik, ; Hood and McKee, ), partisan balance (Hood and McKee, ), the quality of voters’ representation (Yoshinaka and Murphy, ), and the policy representation of minority groups in Congress (Grose, ; Juenke and Preuhs, ), as well as contributing to the long‐running debate over the merits of race‐conscious redistricting as a vehicle for descriptive and substantive representation of minority interests, particularly among African Americans in the South (Overby and Cosgrove, ; Cameron, Epstein, and O'Halloran, ; Canon, ; Lublin, , ; Epstein and O'Halloran, ).…”

Section: Evidence Of Redistricting and Its Consequencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Keeping Up with the Congressmen: Evaluating Constituents’ Awareness of Redistricting

Lawrence

Huffmon

2014

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective. We seek to understand how voters respond to being drawn into a new congressional district: specifically, the new Seventh District of South Carolina created in 2012. Methods. We employ data from a survey of voters in the new district, and employ descriptive statistics and logistic regression models to identify whether voters are aware of the new district, whether they expect better representation as a result, and to explain their likely vote choice. Results. We find limited awareness of the new district among voters, despite a competitive election campaign, but nonetheless a broad public understanding that redistricting may lead to more local influence in Congress. Conclusions. Our results suggest that redistricting efforts that ensure the maintenance of communities of interest to preserve voter-representative links, even if that means deviation from a strict "one person, one vote" standard, may be superior from a representational standpoint.The effects of congressional redistricting on voters can vary dramatically in magnitude. In many cases, in states with fairly stable population trends across the state, we would expect redistricting plans to have few substantive effects on representation. In other cases, either due to political manipulation of the redistricting process or unequal population growth, the effects may be quite profound. However, most existing political science research focuses on the effects of redistricting on the outcomes of elections, particularly in terms of the partisan and racial identity of the candidates who are elected and the effects of redistricting on the incumbency advantage (see, e.g., Overby and Cosgrove, 1996;Desposato and Petrocik, 2003;Grose, 2005;Juenke and Preuhs, 2012). Instead, here we focus on its effects on constituents within the district, a relatively underexplored topic. Specifically, we consider the effects of redistricting on constituents' perceptions of their representation, with particular attention to the question of whether or not individuals are aware of redistricting's effects on them. We find, in general, that voters in the new district were only weakly-if at all-aware of either redistricting or its consequences for local representation, although the district's voters generally seem to believe the redistricting plan in question would help (or at least not harm) their representation in Congress. Finally we consider the consequences of these findings for future redistricting research.

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“…In order of most to least important priority, Georgia Republicans wanted to smooth out the extant Democratic-drawn congressional boundaries, fortify a vulnerable Republican incumbent (Representative Phil Gingrey, GA-11), and unseat two Democratic Representatives-John Barrow and Jim Marshall (see Barone and Cohen 2007;Hood and McKee 2009). They accomplished the first two goals but failed to defeat Barrow and Marshall.…”

Section: Redistricting For the 2006 Midtermmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unwelcome Constituents: Redistricting and Countervailing Partisan Tides

Hood

McKee

2013

State Politics Policy Q.

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We analyze the effect of redrawn constituents on incumbent vote shares in Georgia U.S. House elections from 1992 to 2006. The Georgia General Assembly redrew the congressional boundaries for the 2006 midterm and the new lines redistributed approximately 31% of residents into districts with a different incumbent than the one representing them in 2004. With the use of Voting Tabulation District (VTD) data, we use a hierarchical model to evaluate the effect these redrawn constituents had on their new incumbent's vote share. We find a consistent pattern: both Democratic and Republican incumbents experienced significant reductions in their vote shares as a consequence of the redrawn VTDs placed in their districts. The short-term political climate featuring a national Democratic tide and a simultaneous statewide trend favoring the Grand Old Party (GOP) helps to explain this finding. With offsetting partisan conditions, the incumbency advantage came to the fore as Georgia U.S. House members, irrespective of party affiliation, performed better among the constituents they retained prior to redistricting. Our findings for the 2006 election run counter to the significant Republican redistricting advantage prevailing in Georgia congressional contests from 1992 to 2004.The incumbency advantage affords representatives an additional share of the vote garnered from cultivating a personal connection with constituents. Redistricting, however, severs this bond when residents drawn into a different incumbent's district lack familiarity with their new representative. Thus, under neutral conditions, when

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Trying to Thread the Needle: The Effects of Redistricting in a Georgia Congressional District

Cited by 7 publications

References 13 publications

The Intersection of Redistricting, Race, and Participation

The Intersection of Redistricting, Race, and Participation

Keeping Up with the Congressmen: Evaluating Constituents’ Awareness of Redistricting

Unwelcome Constituents: Redistricting and Countervailing Partisan Tides

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