Tsunami risk perception in central and southern Italy

Abstract

Abstract. The Tsunami Alert Centre of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (CAT-INGV) has been promoting, since 2018, the study of tsunami risk perception in Italy. Between 2018 and 2021 a semi-structured questionnaire on the perception of tsunami risk was administered to a sample of 5842 citizens residing in 450 Italian coastal municipalities, representative of more than 12 million people. The survey was conducted with the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) methodology, described in Cerase et al. (2019), who published the results of the first pilot survey (about 1000 interviews). The large sample and the socio-demographic stratification give an excellent representation of the resident population in the surveyed Italian coastal municipalities. Moreover, in 2021 an optimized version of the questionnaire was also administered via Telepanel (a tool for collecting proportional and representative opinions of citizens) that was representative of the Italian population and included 1500 people distributed throughout the country. In this work we present the main results of the three survey phases, with a comparison among the eight surveyed regions and between the coastal regions and some coastal metropolitan cities involved in the investigations (Rome, Naples, Bari, Reggio Calabria, and Catania). Data analysis reveals heterogeneous and generally low tsunami risk perception. Some seaside populations, in fact, show a good perception of tsunami risk, while others, such as in Apulia and Molise, reveal a lower perception, most likely due to the long time elapsed since the last event and lack of memory. We do not find relevant differences related to the socio-demographic characteristics (age, gender) of the sample, whereas the education degree appears to affect people's perception. The survey shows that the respondents' predominant source of information on tsunamis is the television and other media sources (such as newspapers, books, films, internet), while the official sources (e.g., civil protection, local authorities, universities and research institutes) do not contribute significantly. Also, we find an interesting difference in people's understanding of the words tsunami and maremoto, the local term commonly used in Italy until the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman event, which should be taken into account in scientific and risk communication. The Telepanel survey, based on a nationwide sample, highlights a lower level of tsunami risk perception in comparison to average risk perception levels found in the coastal-municipality sample. Our results are being used to drive our communication strategy aimed at reducing tsunami risk in Italy, to activate dissemination and educational programs (data driven), to fill the data gap on tsunami risk perception in the North-Eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean and connected seas (NEAM) area, and to implement multilevel civil protection actions (national and local, top-down and bottom-up). Not least, outputs can address a better development of the UNESCO Tsunami Ready program in Italy.

Something Still Remains: Factors Affecting Tsunami Risk Perception on the Coasts Hit by the Reggio Calabria – Messina 1908 Event (Italy)

“…decide-announce-defend or deficit models). As unequivocally shown by data, institutional and scientific communication are underperforming, confirming criticalities already noticed in previous research [21,22].…”

“…People with a higher educational qualification are more likely to have better knowledge about natural hazards in their area and basic knowledge about tsunamis. Such a knowledge, in some situations, may reduce the response time in case of emergencies and fosters appropriate and effective behaviors [78,11,70,79,80,21,71,64,81,22].…”

“…Within the tsunami risk management field, the role of the media is recognized both as a relevant source to get information in case of an event [112], and as a resource to improve risk awareness [113,16,22]. Media play an important yet contrasting role: on the one hand, they are recognized as indispensable actors in hazard mitigation programs due their capacity to spread information on tsunami and their outcomes [114], on the other hand redundant media coverage may trigger feelings of anxiety and psychological unrest [115] as well as a false sense of subjective invulnerability, possibly resulting into evacuation mishaps [116].…”

Something Still Remains: Factors Affecting Tsunami Risk Perception on the Coasts Hit by the Reggio Calabria-Messina 1908 Event (Italy)

“…People with a higher educational qualification are more likely to have better knowledge about natural hazards in their area and basic knowledge about tsunamis. Such a knowledge, in some situations, may reduce the response time in case of emergencies and fosters appropriate and effective behaviors [11,21,22,69,74,[84][85][86][87][88].…”

“…The present work is a part of a larger research program on tsunami risk perception on Italian coasts, partially funded by the Department of Civil Protection [21,22]. This study is precisely focused on socio-demographic and geographical factors that may potentially affect tsunami risk perception along with forms and sources of knowledge about the nature, magnitude and danger posed by such phenomena.…”