Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications

Abstract

Tsunamis are an ever-present threat to lives and property along the coasts of most of the world's oceans. As the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004 reminded the world, we must be more proactive in developing ways to reduce their impact on our global society. This article provides an overview of the state of knowledge of tsunamis, presents some challenges confronting advances in the field and identifies some promising frontiers leading to a global warning system. This overview is then used to develop guidelines for advancing the science of forecasting, hazard mitigation programmes and the development of public policy to realize a global system. Much of the information on mitigation and forecasting draws upon the development and accomplishments of a joint state/federal partnership that was forged to reduce tsunami hazards along US coastlines-the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Programme. By integrating hazard assessment, warning guidance and mitigation activities, the programme has created a roadmap and a set of tools to make communities more resilient to local and distant tsunamis. Among the tools are forecasting, educational programmes, early warning systems and design guidance for tsunami-resilient communities. Information on international cooperation is drawn from the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOSS provides an international framework to assure international compatibility and interoperability for rapid exchange of data and information.

Tsunamis: bridging science, engineering and society

“…NCTR tested its real-time forecasting capability during the 2003 Rat Island tsunami [65,66] for the first time. Since then, this forecasting methodology has been tested in real time for each event in the Pacific and is discussed in the next section.…”

A survey of strong high-frequency sea level oscillations along the US East Coast between 2006 and 2011

“…tsunamis) and can lead to severe coastal floods where coastal infrastructure is not adopted properly. Tsunamis are the best example (Bernard et al, 2006); however, atmospherically generated ocean gravity waves and coastal edge waves can also cause severe flooding, especially in harbours characterised by a large amplification factor (Rabinovich, 2009).…”

The quest for wisdom: lessons from 17 tsunamis, 2004–2014

“…We discuss these issues only very briefly, as they have been widely detailed, e.g. by Bernard et al [76], and are also covered in companion papers in this theme issue.…”

“…A significant effort under the Act has involved a substantial enhancement of the DART system of ocean-floor sensors [76,78], which grew from six stations in 2004 to 36 in 2015 (plus 25 similar instruments deployed by foreign programmes), streaming their data to the National Data Buoy Center in Mississippi. This is a remarkable development, since DART data constitute the critical input to the provision of realistic tsunami wave forecasts in real time under programmes such as SIFT [79].…”