Tuberculosis in the Russian Federation: Dynamics of the Epidemic Indicators before and after COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The measures taken against tuberculosis (TB) in recent years in the Russian Federation have been highly effective. Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic may seriously undermine the progress that has been made in the fight against TB. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the epidemiological rates of tuberculosis in the Russian Federation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods. The analysis was conducted by considering the main epidemiological indicators of tuberculosis, according to the federal statistics for the period from 2017 to 2021. The parameters were estimated according to the data received from 11 areas in the North-Western region. Statistical analysis was carried out using the free software computing environment R (v.3.5.1) and the commercial software package Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 24.0, IBM Corp., 2016). Research results. We found a positive correlation between the incidence among the overall population and the incidence among children aged 0–17, inclusively (r = 0.55 in 2017, r = 0.60 in 2020, and r = 0.53 in 2021). Along with the received regularities, a different trend is shown in the data analysis of general incidence and health X-ray examination for tuberculosis among the general population. The correlation has decreased threefold from 2017 (r = 0.72) to 2020 (r = 0.32); this negative trend might be the result of factors such as the quality of X-ray screening examinations among the general population, and the reduced assessment objectivity of the tuberculosis incidence rate. Conclusions. In assessing the correlation between general incidence and incidence in children under 17 years of age, as well as between incidence and mortality in the Russian Federation, a positive correlation was found with an increasing trend. Such a discrepancy might be due to decreases in the occupational health examination coverage among the general population. Therefore, in the years ahead, we can expect epidemiological indicators to increase incidence and mortality, including child mortality, associated with the insufficient detection of tuberculosis among the population during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tuberculosis Prevalence Trends from a Predictive Modelling Study — 10 High-Burden Countries, 1980–2035

“…Between 2016 and 2020, Russia made notable strides in TB prevention and control, meeting the WHO’s targets for 2020. This progress was linked to the implementation of new diagnostic tools, successful treatment protocols, expanded population coverage for TB screening, and the establishment of healthcare programs supporting TB patients, particularly those with HIV co-infection ( 7 ). With the challenges faced by these HBCs in achieving the goals of the End Tuberculosis Strategy, there is an immediate need to learn from their accomplishments and fortify global TB prevention and control measures.…”

“…In order to predict TB incidence for the years 2023-2035, various predictive models were utilized, including the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model ( 4), neural network model ( 5), bayesian structural model (6), and a hybrid model integrating ARIMA, exponential smoothing (ETS), and seasonal and trend decomposition using Loess (STL). Details on these models can be found in the Supplementary Material (available at https:// weekly.chinacdc.cn/).…”