Setting: United States. Background: It is unknown whether tuberculosis (TB) case or patient characteristics can predict the likelihood of future related TB cases. Objective: To estimate the likelihood for future related cases, i.e., cases with matching TB genotypes within the same county diagnosed within the 2 years following the year of reporting of each included case. Design: We considered all TB cases with genotyping results reported in the United States during [2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010]. Predictive scores were calculated based on patient characteristics by dividing the number of patients who were not the last case in a county-level TB genotype cluster by the total number of patients. Results: Overall, there was a 30.8% chance that a future related case would be detected during the 2 years following the report year of any given case. Future related cases were detected in 34.7% of instances following the diagnosis of smear-positive cases, 51.9% of instances following the diagnosis of a homeless patient and 45.2% of instances following the diagnosis of a patient who reported substance abuse. Predictive scores ranged by race (White 13.9%, Native Hawaiian 43.8%) and age group (65 years 13.1%, 0-4 years 43%), and were higher for US-born patients. Conclusions: Behavioral and sociodemographic factors can help predict the likelihood of future related cases and can be used to prioritize contact investigations.
Public Health Action Predicting future related TB cases 48lessness, incarceration at the time of diagnosis, sputum smear status, site of disease and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status. In the NTSS, excess alcohol use, injection drug use, and non-injection drug use are defined as positive if reported within the year before TB diagnosis. We defined substance abuse as having any one of these three behaviors reported. We used multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between being an index case, relative to unique cases (dependent variable), and the abovementioned independent factors. A significance level of 0.01 was used for all statistical tests.
Predictive scores of patient characteristicsTo estimate the ability with which individual patient characteristics can predict one or more future related cases, we calculated predictive scores for patient and clinical characteristics for both US-born and foreign-born patients. For any given case, a future related case was a case with matching genotyping results diagnosed in the same county during the 2 years following the report year of each included case. All cases in a cluster were categorized as either the last case diagnosed in a cluster or not the last case diagnosed in a cluster. . Therefore, for each case included, there were at least 2 years of follow-up time during which another case with matching genotype results could have been diagnosed within the same county. This length of time is referred to as the follow-up period. A predictive score was calculated for each sociodemographic, behavioral and clinical characteristic. Pr...