Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarına Etki Eden Faktörlerin Analizi

Çetin, Ali Cüneyt

doi:10.31200/makuubd.846667

Cited by 20 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…When the results obtained are compared with the literature, Akcay et al (2021), Kırca and Canbay (2022), Atasoy and Tanrıvermiş (2021), Colak (2021), Yıldırım et al (2021), Gebeşoğlu (2019), Nneji et al (2013), Goodhart and Hofmann (2008), McQuinn and O’Reilly (2008) and Zhu (2006) have obtained similar results in terms of determining the short- and long-term relationships of housing prices with macrovariables. Çetin (2021) determined the relationship between housing prices, inflation and industrial production index as negative and the relationship between interest rates as positive. Karadaş and Salihoglu (2020), while interest rates, housing loan volume, real exchange rate and inflation affect housing prices negatively, the industrial production index creates a positive effect.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey

Akça

2022

IJHMA

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to make an analysis of the short- and long-term effects of inflation, exchange rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loans and housing volume on housing inflation in Turkey, taking into account the multiple structural breaks. Design/methodology/approach Multiple structural break Lee–Strazicich unit root test, autoregressive distributed lag bound test and Granger causality test based on error correction model were used. Findings There is both a short- and long-term relationship between housing prices and macrovariables. Housing prices are mostly affected by housing interest rates, housing volume, real exchange rate and total housing loans in the short run. In the long run, it is mostly affected by total housing loans, housing volume and housing interest rates. Research limitations/implications The variables used in the analysis are: housing price index, consumer price index, dollar rate, housing interest rate, industrial production index, total housing loan amount and domestic loan volume. Because the data that variables started common is 2010:M01, the period starting from this date until 2021:M12 is considered. The research covers only Turkey as a country. Determining the micro- and macroeffects of housing prices can always offer solutions for the problems experienced in housing supply and housing demand. Originality/value While investigating housing prices, there are no studies in which total housing loans and housing volume are included in the model together. However, it is important to analyze the effect of the current conjuncture, in which there has been constant increases in foreign exchange rates and high inflation in recent years, on housing prices in Turkey. In this study, investigating these effects by using econometric methods that include structural breaks also increases the original value of this study.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey

Akça

2022

IJHMA

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“…Konut konusu ise ulusal ve uluslararası alan yazında yaygın olarak konut fiyatına etki eden faktörler boyutunda incelenmiş (Afşar, Yılmazer & Yılmazer, 2017;Çalmaşur & Aysin, 2018;Çetin, 2021) bazı çalışmalarda konut talebini etkileyen unsurları ele alınmış ve konu; ülke (Çelik & Kıral, 2018;Uysal & Yiğit, 2016;Önder & Turgut, 2018) bölge (Yayar & Karaca, 2014) ve il düzeyinde (Aktürk & Tekman, 2016;Yayar & Gül, 2014;Kördiş, Işık & Mert, 2014) irdelenmiştir. Ayrıca çok yaygın olmamakla birlikte konut, yabancıların konut edinme tercihinde etkili olan unsurlar (Artul & Ergün, 2022;Uyar & Kılıç, 2017), konut balonu (Abioğlu, 2020), konut sorunu (Alkan & Uğurlar, 2015) ve finansmanı (Berberoğlu & Teker, 480 2005) ile konut piyasasında etkinlik (Alp & Seven; başlıkları altında irdelenmiştir.…”

Section: Literatürunclassified

Convergence i̇n Household Ownershi̇p: 26 Sub-Regi̇on Examples

ÖNDER,

AKANSEL

2024

Dicle Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi

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İnsanoğlunun yeryüzünde yaşamaya başlamasıyla barınma ihtiyacı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bireyler barınma ihtiyacını konut satın alarak ya da konut kiralayarak gidermiştir. Barınma ihtiyacı ister satın alma isterse kiralama yöntemi ile karşılansın sonuçta bireylerin aylık gelirlerinin önemli bir payı konut ve kira giderine ayrılmaktadır. Nitekim, tüketim harcaması içinde en büyük pay konut ve kira harcamasına aittir. Konut ve kira tüketim harcama grubuna ait harcama eğilimi çoğunlukla hane halkının konut satınalma tercihinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Hane halkının konut satın alma tercihinde; yaşanan kira artış oranları, pandemi ve pandemi sonrası süreçte ortaya çıkan konut türü tercihi, konutun güvenli yatırım aracı olarak görülmesi ve Türkiye’de yaşanan deprem felaketine bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan güvenli konut talebidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 26 alt bölge düzeyinde Türkiye’de konut sahipliğinde bir yakınsamanın olup olmadığını analiz etmektir. Analizde sistem GMM tahmin tekniği kullanılmış olup, analiz kısıtlı ve kısıtsız olarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Kısıtlı modelde; kişi başı gelir ile hanedeki ortalama birey sayısı gibi bağımsız değişkenlerden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan kısıtlı ve kısıtsız model tahmin sonuçlarının iktisat teorisi ile uyumluluk gösterdiği dolayısıyla bölgeler arasında bir yakınsamanın var olduğu belirlenmiştir.

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“…In the limited number of studies examining changes in house prices on a national basis, the problem is mostly addressed with the ARDL methodology and the causality dimension. These studies proceed to the estimation stage independently of a theoretical model (see, for instance, Alp, 2019;Karadas-Salihoglu, 2020;Yildirim et al, 2021;Cetin, 2021;Sari, 2022;Ozcan, 2023;Sanli-Peker, 2023;Bakirci-Akgemci, 2023). It should be noted that studies investigating the existence of bubbles in the housing market have recently increased (see, for instance, Solak-Kabadayi, 2016;Cagli, 2019;Coskun et al, 2020;Gokce-Guler, 2020;Akkus, 2021;Coskun-Pitros, 2022;Kayacan, 2022;Vergili, 2023;Gunduz et al, 2023).…”

Section: Business and Economic Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Speculative Demand in Housing Price Changes in Turkey

Siklar

2024

BER

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Housing accounts for the largest portion of households' total assets in Turkey. It is an economic sector that requires careful analysis, especially considering the government's housing sector support policies and the significant price increases in recent years. This study utilizes the theoretical model developed within the Efficient Markets Hypothesis framework and the SVAR methodology to estimate house price changes. These changes are then decomposed into structural shocks, including supply, residential demand, and speculative demand shocks. The empirical results highlight the significant role of speculative demand in driving house price changes, with house price expectations being the main factor influencing speculative demand shocks. The behavior of the banking sector and interest rates also play a significant role in this process. Consequently, policies to stabilize house prices should consider these factors and not solely focus on credit regulations when consumer expectations are the driving force behind house price changes.

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Türkiye’de Konut Fiyatlarına Etki Eden Faktörlerin Analizi

Cited by 20 publications

References 30 publications

House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey

House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey

Convergence i̇n Household Ownershi̇p: 26 Sub-Regi̇on Examples

The Role of Speculative Demand in Housing Price Changes in Turkey

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