Türkiye’nin Demiryolu Yük Taşımacılığı Talebinin Zaman Serisi Analizi ile Tahmini

Abstract

Among the transportation modes,it is the type of railway transportation that has a very low freight cost in mass transportation, although the investment cost is high. Estimating the amount of load to be carried on the rail provides effective planning for managers. This study was analyzed using annual time series data between 1978-2018 will consist of rail freight demand in Turkey. The short and long term flexibility of the estimation was estimated with the Johansen cointegration analysis and error correction model. According to the results obtained, the most important determinant of the rail freight demand was the freight rate. According to the freight rate of the rail freight demand, the long-term and short-term elasticities are almost the same as -0.181 and -0.184. The long-term trade volume flexibility of the demand for rail freight is meaningful and positive, meaning that the demand for the rail will increase as the trade volume increases. However, the longterm Gross Value Added and Fuel Price elasticities of the demand for the railway load are significant and negative. In other words, these variables will now reduce the demand for rail freight. According to the error correction model, 55% of any last-term deviation in the rail freight demand is corrected within a year and the long-term balance relationship can be restored..