Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections

Arnold, Félix

doi:10.1111/sjoe.12241

Cited by 15 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…22Moreover, physical factors such as the weather have been shown to affect turnout: while most studies find a negative effect of bad weather (Arnold & Freier, 2016; Arnold, 2018; Artés, 2014; Garcia‐Rodriguez & Redmond, 2020; Gomez et al, 2007; Hansford & Gomez, 2010; Shachar & Nalebuff, 1999), some studies find there is no effect (Knack, 1994; Meier et al, 2019; Persson et al, 2014), and some even suggest a positive effect of bad weather on turnout (Lind, 2020). …”

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confidence: 99%

Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections

Frank

Stadelmann

Torgler

2022

Economics & Politics

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We analyze the effect of electoral turnout on incumbency advantages by exploring mayoral elections in the German state of Bavaria. Mayors are elected by majority rule in two‐round (runoff) elections. Between the first and second ballot of the mayoral election in March 2020, the state government announced an official state of emergency. In the second ballot, voting in person was prohibited and only postal voting was possible. To construct an instrument for electoral turnout, we use a difference‐in‐differences strategy by contrasting turnout in the first and second ballot in 2020 with the first and second ballots from previous elections. We use this instrument to analyze the causal effect of turnout on incumbent vote shares. A 10‐percentage point increase in turnout leads to a statistically robust 3.4 percentage point higher vote share for incumbent mayors highlighting the relevance of turnout‐related incumbency advantages.

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confidence: 99%

Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections

Frank

Stadelmann

Torgler

2022

Economics & Politics

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“…This prediction is in line with the empirical evidence. There is a well-established positive association between ex-ante election closeness and aggregate turnout in the empirical literature (Cancela and Geys, 2016;Arnold, 2018;Bursztyn et al, 2021). Notably, this association cannot be explained by the standard notion of a civic duty.…”

Section: Behavioral Assumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is your vote vital?

Herrmann

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This thesis was a long time in the making, and it is a relief to finally have finished it. It has its origins in a meeting with the, at the time, outgoing and incoming Research Master coordinators, Richard Jong-A-Pin and Tristan Kohl, respectively. While we were brainstorming ideas for my firstyear research project, I mentioned in passing that 'I have always wondered why people vote'. Given that this was one of Richard's research areas, he picked up on it and offered to be my supervisor for this project. We spent hours exploring and discussing the literature and concluded that there was still much more research to be done on the topic of voter behavior. We also needed an expert in game theory on board, and who better to do it than Bert Schoonbeek. Thus began a fruitful collaboration, which resulted in the paper presented in Chapter 2 of this thesis. It was then only logical to continue with a PhD. I really could not have asked for better supervisors. Bert and Richard, I thank you wholeheartedly for your guidance, support, and patience. The final proposition attached to this thesis is a nod to you: without your counsel, my plans would surely have gone wrong. You guided me in terms of I am able to continue my career here after my PhD. Thanks to my office mates over the years, Bart Claassen, Lennart Stangenberg, Tobias Grohmann, and Francesco Febbraro, for the camaraderie and the occasional welcome distraction. Thank you to my teaching colleagues for showing me the ropes and for the pleasant cooperation. I extend my gratitude to

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Fair weather voters: do Canadians stay at home when the weather is bad?

Stockemer

Wigginton

2018

Int J Biometeorol

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What is the relationship between precipitation and the temperature on turnout? Using data on the 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2015 Canadian federal elections, we try to answer this question. Through bivariate and multi-variate statistics, we find that each millimeter of precipitation decreases turnout by more than .1 percentage points. When it comes to the temperature our results indicate that that higher temperatures trigger higher turnout. However, we also find that these relationships only apply to spring, summer and fall elections. In the winter 2006 elections, the association was different; warmer temperatures in this election triggered lower turnout, except in the absence of precipitation.

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Turnout and Closeness: Evidence from 60 Years of Bavarian Mayoral Elections

Cited by 15 publications

References 51 publications

Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections

Higher turnout increases incumbency advantages: Evidence from mayoral elections

Is your vote vital?

Fair weather voters: do Canadians stay at home when the weather is bad?

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