Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal

Mackie, Peter; Preston, John

doi:10.1016/s0967-070x(98)00004-3

Cited by 158 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…Our conjecture is that political decision making without the checks and balances of decision support tends to produce worse results. This is seen whenever projects acquire prior political commitment and become extremely difficult to stop however poor the economic case (Mackie and Preston, 1998).…”

Section: The Applicability Of Appraisalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport

Mackie

2010

OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers

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Section: The Applicability Of Appraisalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport

Mackie

2010

OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers

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“…Actions by the agency are often required to alleviate perceived negative impacts of construction on the local societal environment as well as on the natural environment. The required accommodation is often unknown during the early stages of project development Board (2003), Daniels 1998, Mackie and Preston (1998), Schroeder (2000.…”

Section: Planning-externalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Projects seem to often grow naturally as the project progresses from inception through development to construction Board (2003), Harbuck (2004), Mackie and Preston (1998).…”

Section: Planning-externalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The core assumptions underlying an estimate are confused by ambiguous contract provisions Chang (2002), Harbuck (2004), Mackie (1998), Measuring (1998.…”

Section: Execution-internalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Contract Document Conflicts lead to errors and confusion while bidding and later during project execution they cause change orders and rework Harbuck (2004), Mackie (1998), Measuring (1998).…”

Section: Execution-internalmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimating large complex projects

2007

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ResumenGestionar proyectos de construcción de grandes capitales requiere de la coordinación de una multitud de recursos humanos, organizacionales, técnicos y naturales. Frecuentemente, las complejidades del diseño y construcción de esos grandes proyectos son tapadas por sus desafíos económicos, políticos y sociales. Las ramificaciones y efectos que resultan de las diferencias entre la estimación de costo inicial, el costo de la propuesta adjudicada y el costo final del proyecto son significativas. Hay numerosos factores que inciden en el costo final del proyecto entre su inicio y finalización. La duración es generalmente de varios años y puede incluso superar la década para aquellos especialmente complejos y desafiantes. En ese período de tiempo, cambios en los alcances del proyecto cambian frecuentemente. El tópico del presente artículo es mostrar estrategias para apoyar la estimación realista de costos. A través de investigación bibliográfica y entrevistas con agencias de transporte de EE.UU. y otros países, los autores desarrollaron y presentan una base de datos con los factores clave que producen problemas en la estimación de costos.Palabras Clave: Incremento en costos, estimación, gestión de estimación, estimación de procesos, costo de proyectos, alcance de proyectos Abstract Managing large capital construction projects requires the coordination of a multitude of human, organizational, technical, and natural resources. Quite often, the engineering and construction complexities of such projects are overshadowed by economic, societal, and political challenges. The ramifications and effects, which result from differences between early project cost estimates and the bid price or the final project cost, are significant. Over the time span between the initiation of a project and the completion of construction many factors influence a project's final costs. This time span is normally several years in duration but for highly complex and technologically challenging projects, project duration can easily exceed a decade. Over that period, changes to the project scope often occur. The subject here is a presentation of strategies that support realistic cost estimating. Through literature review and interviews with transportation agencies in the U.S. and internationally the authors developed a database of the factors that are the root causes of cost estimation problems.Keywords: Cost escalation, estimating, estimate management, estimating processes, project cost, project scope Project cost escalation is a major problem for government agencies. Over the time span between the initiation of a project and the completion of construction many factors influence a project's final costs. Over that period, substantial project scope changes often occur. During the early stages of a project many factors that influence project costs are not known, these could be such things as insufficient knowledge regarding the exact project location, environmental mitigation requirements, or work-hour restrictions. There are also other process typ...

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References

2012

Strategic Issues in Public‐Private Partnerships

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Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal

Cited by 158 publications

References 8 publications

Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport

Cost-Benefit Analysis in Transport

Estimating large complex projects

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