Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city

Campos, Natalia Bruna Dias; Morais, Maria Helena Franco; Ceolin, Ana Paula Romanelli; Cunha, Maria da Consolação Magalhães; Nicolino, Rafael Romero; Schultes, Olivia; Friche, Amélia Augusta de Lima; Caiaffa, Waleska Teixeira

doi:10.1080/09603123.2019.1656801

Cited by 16 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The city has a population of 2,512,070 and a population density of 7167 people/km 2 (Figure 1d) [34]. The health vulnerability index is a composite socioeconomic indicator used by the Municipal Health Department and was calculated for all CAs [8] (Figure 1c). Belo Horizonte is situated between 680 and 1,267 metres above sea level (Figure 1b) and has a warm rainy season from October through March, which is characterised by average temperatures of 23.1°C and 235 mm of monthly rainfall [35, 36].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first contained dengue cases in the city reported through a passive surveillance system from 2006 to 2018. All laboratory‐confirmed or clinically diagnosed cases were considered for analysis, as described in Campos et al [8]. Study years were classified as epidemic or non‐epidemic based on guidelines from the Minas Gerais Health Secretariat [9].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Brazil has a high annual burden of dengue; in 2019, the year with the highest number of globally recorded cases, more than 70% of all cases in the Americas occurred in Brazil [6, 7]. Dengue has been endemic in Belo Horizonte since its introduction in 1996, and there have been five epidemics: in 1998, 2010, 2013, 2016 and 2019 [8, 9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar factors are also associated with the spatial occurrence of dengue. Studies have found that increased dengue incidence is associated with decreased household water connections [21], increased water storage [17], irregular or absent garbage collection [16, 17, 22], lack of basic sanitation [17, 23] and lower socioeconomic status indicators [8, 21, 22]. Other factors can also influence the spatial distribution of cases, including circulating serotype [24], local population immunity [24] and human mobility [17, 25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Schultes

Morais

Cunha

et al. 2020

Tropical Med Int Health

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Objectives Understanding the intra‐urban spatial dynamics of Aedes aegypti and dengue transmission is important to effectively guide vector control. Ovitraps are a sensitive, cost‐effective vector surveillance tool, yet few longitudinal studies have evaluated ovitrap indices and dengue occurrence. We aimed to assess the spatial patterns of dengue incidence and Ae. aegypti ovitrap positivity index (OPI) over time and to examine the spatial relationship between these two variables. Methods This study used 12 years (2007–2018) of dengue case records and biweekly Ae. aegypti ovitrap data in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. We aggregated data by year and health centre catchment area (n = 152) and used both univariate and bivariate global Moran’s I statistic and LISA to evaluate spatial clustering. Results Annual dengue incidence ranged from 18 to 6262/100 000 residents and displayed spatial autocorrelation in 10/12 years, with shifting areas of high incidence. Annual OPI ranged from 35.7 to 47.6% and was clustered in all study years, but unlike dengue had consistent spatial patterns over time. Bivariate analysis found both positive (6/12 years) and negative (1/12 years) spatial associations between the two variables. Conclusions Low detected presence of Ae. aegypti was not a limiting factor in dengue transmission. However, stable spatial distribution of OPI suggests that certain areas may have persistent breeding sites. Future research should identify factors related to persistent Ae. aegypti hotspots to better guide vector management. Vector control efforts should be paired with additional data on population immunity, circulating serotypes and urban factors to better predict and control outbreaks.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Schultes

Morais

Cunha

et al. 2020

Tropical Med Int Health

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“…Dengue incidence is rising [1][2][3]. Current estimates indicate that over half of the world's population is at risk of dengue virus infection (DENV) [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

et al. 2020

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Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In most settings, the primary intervention against Aedes-transmitted viruses is vector control, such as indoor, ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying. Targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) has the potential to more effectively impact Aedes-borne diseases, but its implementation requires careful planning and evaluation. The optimal time to deploy these interventions and their relative epidemiological effects are, however, not well understood. We used an agentbased model of dengue virus transmission calibrated to data from Iquitos, Peru to assess the epidemiological effects of these interventions under differing strategies for deploying them. Specifically, we compared strategies where spray application was initiated when incidence rose above a threshold based on incidence in recent years to strategies where spraying occurred at the same time(s) each year. In the absence of spraying, the model predicted 361,000 infections [inter-quartile range (IQR): 347,000-383,000] in the period 2000-2010. The ULV strategy with the fewest median infections was spraying twice yearly, in March and October, which led to a median of 172,000 infections [IQR: 158,000-183,000], a 52% reduction from baseline. Compared to spraying once yearly in September, the best thresholdbased strategy utilizing ULV had fewer median infections (254,000 vs. 261,000), but required more spraying (351 vs. 274 days). For TIRS, the best strategy was thresholdbased, which led to the fewest infections of all strategies tested (9,900; [IQR: 8,720-11,400], a 94% reduction), and required fewer days spraying than the equivalent ULV strategy (280). Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, our results PLOS COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

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Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Damtew¹,

Tong²,

Varghese³

et al. 2023

eBioMedicine

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Twenty-Two years of dengue fever (1996-2017): an epidemiological study in a Brazilian city

Cited by 16 publications

References 27 publications

Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Spatial analysis of dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti ovitrap surveillance in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis

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