Twenty Years in the Making

Abstract

Even after twenty years of Lukashenka’s rule, Belarusians still have to struggle for democracy. However, there has been a modest growth in the number of protesters during presidential elections and in the pro-EU mood of the Belarusian population. This article analyzes the dynamic of this growth through the prism of social movements literature and such concepts as framing, political opportunity, and mobilizing structures. The argument is that the weakness of the mobilizing structures and framing processes at times when political opportunities presented themselves in Belarus resulted in an absence of large-scale protests and a failure to sustain the development of social movements in the country. At the same time, Belarus cannot be considered as being in a static or retrogressive state since transnational flows characteristic of a globalizing world have exposed people to wider flows of information, providing them with counterframes and resulting in a modest growth in the numbers of protesters and a change in the preferences of the Belarusian population.

Placing the 2020 Belarusian Protests in Historical Context: Political Attitudes and Participation during Lukashenko’s Presidency

“…The results lead us to conclude that the scale of the demonstrations in 2020–2021 was exacerbated by a number of conjunctural factors that triggered a bandwagon effect, bringing into the street protestors beyond the core group of dissatisfied citizens that would routinely protest in the face of state injustice. As Kulakevich (2014) argues, the weakness of the mobilizing structures and framing processes had previously resulted in the absence of large-scale protests in Belarus. In the current situation, the issues that citizens are demonstrating about are plentiful (economy, handing of COVID-19, corruption, electoral fraud, state-sponsored violence) and touch multiple segments of the society.…”

“…Since the European Commission (2021) finds the Belarusian higher education system has been growing rapidly since 1991, we might except more individuals to have a stronger sense of civic/participatory attitudes. In congruence with this idea, Kulakevich (2014) points out there has been modest growth in the number of protestors during presidential elections. In addition, Kulakevich (2014) argues that a growth of protestors in the future is expected due to the transnational flow of a globalizing world providing citizens with increased amounts of information and ideas about political action.…”

“…In congruence with this idea, Kulakevich (2014) points out there has been modest growth in the number of protestors during presidential elections. In addition, Kulakevich (2014) argues that a growth of protestors in the future is expected due to the transnational flow of a globalizing world providing citizens with increased amounts of information and ideas about political action.…”

The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus

“…While the events did not come out of nowhere, building on a history of activism and opposition in the country (Herasimenka 2019; Hrycak 2010; Korosteleva 2009; Kulakevich 2014; Marples 2006; Nikolayenko 2015b, 2015a; Pospieszna and Galus 2019; Titarenko et al 2006), and while they were preceded by smaller opposition activist protests since May 2020, the events that unfolded in August 2020 were different to anything seen in Belarus previously. Even at a time when the political outcome was still uncertain, it was already clear that this moment of mass mobilization marked a watershed moment from a societal perspective.…”