Two Commonly Used Prediction Models (Mayo and VA) To Estimate the Probability of Malignancy in Patients With Solitary Pulmonary Nodules Are Not Applicable in a Country With a High Prevalence of Tuberculosis

Análise e validação de modelos probabilísticos de malignidade de nódulo pulmonar solitário em uma população no Brasil

“…One group of authors recently tested the model of Swensen et al (3) in a population in the Philippines and found that the model was not valid as a predictor of malignancy, a finding that was associated with the high rate of tuberculosis in the study population. (6) In our study population, both models proved effective in predicting the malignant potential of SPNs, the model of Swensen et al (3) being more accurate than that of Gould et al (4) The results obtained with the use of the equations developed by Swensen et al (3) showed cases within the range between these cut-off points, it is impossible to draw reliable conclusions based on the model, and further investigation being therefore necessary.…”

“…(3)(4)(5) In a study conducted in the Philippines, the high prevalence of tuberculosis made it impossible to repeat that finding, demonstrating the ineffectiveness of the models for that population. (6) Since, to date, there have been no studies in Brazil aimed at evaluating these models in a population in the country, the objective of the present study was to analyze clinical and radiological variables that influence the pathological diagnosis of SPN and to compare and validate the two aforementioned mathematical models (3,4) for calculating the probability of SPN malignancy in patients with SPN in Brazil.…”