Time-lapse seismic technology has been successfully used in the petroleum industry. It provides important information regarding properties of the reservoir between and beyond the wells; 4D (time-lapse) seismic data is used as input for several processes, such as: well planning/completion; geological model constraining and reservoir simulation history matching. However, there are technical issues to be addressed before starting a 4D seismic project. Several geophysical studies use the chance of success concept to identify favorable cases; evaluating the seismic survey and the magnitude of seismic changes. However, from an engineering point of view it is important to evaluate the chances of business success, which relies on the use of the new information to identify infill well locations, increase the predictive capability of reservoir simulations, optimize the reservoir performance and develop well intervention programs. A 4D seismic project is considered an economic success if the impact on field operations generates more monetary benefit than the acquisition cost. The complex estimation should be based on field uncertainties and decision analysis. Given the importance and difficulty of predicting economic success, this paper presents a methodology to estimate the chance of success of a 4D seismic project from the engineering perspective applied to a synthetic model. The methodology was applied to a synthetic reservoir model to obtain a first estimate of the chance of success of a 4D seismic project for a specific production period. The process was performed in the developing phase and it comprises several methodologies such as: risk analysis, representative models selection, production strategy optimization and value of information concept. The presented methodology provides information of the chance of success of a 4D seismic project at a specific production period assisting the decision maker to evaluate the need for further analysis or to establish the acquisition or not of 4D seismic data. This decision is taken considering the acquisition cost, the increase of NPV due to new data and other influential factors. Thus, the main benefit derived from the acquisition of 4D seismic data was on the identification of remaining oil areas. Time-lapse seismic data has been successfully used in reservoir monitoring; several published cases report the success of its use in the improvement of production efficiency. But it is important to predict if acquiring new information will be profitable before the acquisition. This is a complex but essential part of time-lapse seismic reservoir management.
