Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil

Almeida, Gabriel Berg de; Pronunciate, Micheli; Grotto, Rejane Maria Tommasini; Pugliesi, Edmur Azevedo; Guimarães, Raúl Borges; Vilches, Thomas N.; Coutinho, Renato Mendes; Catão, Rafael de Castro; Ferreira, Cláudia Pio; Fortaleza, Carlos Magno Castelo Branco

doi:10.1017/s0950268820002927

Cited by 14 publications

(20 citation statements)

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“…Overall, the fact that the model performs better for some localities compared to the other also reflects degrees of heterogeneity of COVID-19 test across the country 19 . Moreover, several local social and economic features can modulate the chance of death, not to forget access to health services and hospitals might be an important issue in each region of Brazil.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…One can notice laboratories capacity is also increasing on time. This decrease the time of virus detection over the country, but in a heterogeneous way since there is a geographic concentration of laboratories in São Paulo state 19 . Amaku et al 24 implemented a modified version of the classical SEIR compartmental model to compare two different test-trace-and-quarantine strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brazil: indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, and testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since the beginning of June, the state decided to adopt a reopening plan - that brings back people mobility and non-essential services - which can be more restrictive or more flexible, considering the growth rate of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and bed occupancy rates in each DRS. The same restrictive measures rule all cities belonging to a DRS, that can be adapted in response to the temporal-spatial behavior of the epidemic 25 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

Almeida

Vilches

Ferreira

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals’ social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

Almeida

Vilches

Ferreira

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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“…Phase 4 has less restriction than phase 3, and at phase 5, all services are allowed to open, maintaining all specific protocols. Now, in December 2020, all São Paulo State is at phase 3 [ 28 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2021

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Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy.

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“…Assim, em conjunto, reduziram a velocidade de dispersão do vírus, mas foram insuficientes para interromper a transmissão. Vale destacar que parte da população se mostrou resistente a adotar as medidas preventivas (Almeida, Pronunciate, Grotto, Pugliesi, Guimarães, Vilches et al, 2020).…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

Estudo infodemiológico da associação da pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil com o volume de pesquisa na internet

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et al. 2021

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Verificar a existência de relação entre a busca por informação na Internet sobre COVID-19 e os números de casos e óbitos pela doença no território brasileiro. Realizamos um estudo infodemiológico usando a palavra de busca “Coronavírus” no Google Trends™, para cada unidade federativa e o Distrito Federal, referentes à população, ao número de casos confirmados e ao número de óbitos. Em seguida, comparamos cada Volume de Pesquisa Relativo ao número de novos casos e óbitos por COVID‑19 divulgados pelo Ministério da Saúde do Brasil durante o período de maio a junho de 2020. Os primeiros casos de COVID-19 notificados no país foram acompanhados do aumento de buscas na Internet sobre o tema, havendo uma redução do interesse ao longo do período estudado. A média de Volume de Pesquisa Relativo foi 37,8. Houve uma correlação positiva entre casos e óbitos, entretanto a correlação entre esses parâmetros e o Volume de Pesquisa Relativo comportou-se com significância negativa. Dados infodemiológicos têm permitido monitorar em tempo real surtos de doenças infecciosas em nível local e global. O Brasil apresentou comportamento inverso aos estudos anteriores. Evidenciamos uma forte relação negativa entre o acesso a conteúdo na Internet e o número de casos confirmados e óbitos por COVID-19 em todo o território brasileiro.

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Two hundred days of COVID-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil

Cited by 14 publications

References 13 publications

Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

Addressing the COVID-19 transmission in inner Brazil by a mathematical model

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil

Estudo infodemiológico da associação da pandemia da COVID-19 no Brasil com o volume de pesquisa na internet

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