Two methods of reducing overconfidence

Arkes, Hal R.; Christensen, Caryn; Lai, Cheryl; Blumer, Catherine

doi:10.1016/0749-5978(87)90049-5

Cited by 245 publications

(126 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Thus subtle pressures to conform, impress, or deny may be strong reasons to be mis-calibrated in one's judgements. Arkes et al (1987) found that anticipating a discussion of their responses with peers lengthened the amount of time that subjects spent making decisions and significantly reduced their overconfidence, which suggests that motivational factors regarding self-presentation were in operation.…”

Section: Attempts To De-bias Via Training and Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Arkes, Dawes, and Christensen (1986) suggested that high overconfidence in a task may result in corrective feedback being ignored when people believe that their accuracy is already high. Their later research, however, showed that corrective feedback, in the form of the correct answers given to a highly overconfident group, did significantly improve the subjects' calibration (Arkes, Christensen, Lai, & Blumer, 1987). Arkes et al manipulated the apparent difficulty of the practice session questions and found that the greatest reduction in confidence results from feedback that contradicted subjects' feelings the most --subjects overcompensated and became underconfident when they believed they were doing well but were told that they were performing poorly.…”

Section: Attempts To De-bias Via Training and Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Overconfidence: Feedback and item difficulty effects

Pulford

Colman

1997

Personality and Individual Differences

124

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Section: Attempts To De-bias Via Training and Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Attempts To De-bias Via Training and Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overconfidence: Feedback and item difficulty effects

Pulford

Colman

1997

Personality and Individual Differences

124

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“…We manipulated confidence directly by varying the feedback participants received (cf. Arkes, Christensen, Lai, & Blumer, 1987;Stone & Opel, 2000). Specifically, participants received no trial-by-trial feedback about their accuracy, authentic feedback (as in the prior experiments), or exaggerated feedback.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment

Mannes

Moore

2013

Psychol Sci

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Overprecision-an excessive confidence that one knows the truth-is both the most durable and the least understood form of overconfidence. This article outlines an approach to the study of overprecision that avoids some of the methodological problems of other approaches and better reflects the way uncertainty affects choices in everyday life. We measured the precision in judgment implied by people's tendency to adjust their point estimates of an uncertain quantity in response to the costs of overestimating or underestimating the correct answer. The results revealed robust overprecision. People adjusted their estimates less than they should have given their actual knowledge, and this effect was driven by their subjective confidence. In press, Psychological Science Abstract Overprecision-an excessive faith that one knows the truth-is both the most durable and least understood form of overconfidence. This paper offers an approach to the study of overprecision that has more in common with the way uncertainty affects our actions in everyday life and avoids some methodological problems of other approaches. We measure the precision in judgment implied by people's tendency to adjust their point estimates of an uncertain quantity in response to the costs of over-or underestimating the correct answer. The results reveal robust overprecision. People adjust their estimates less than they should given their actual knowledge, and this is driven by their subjective confidence.Author note: Data and stimuli are available at

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“…In experiments, (Arkes, Christensen, Lai, & Blumer, 1987;, too, detailed feedback has been effective. Note, however, that experience is not enough.…”

Section: Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 99%

What We Know About Spreadsheet Errors

Panko

1998

Journal of Organizational and End User Computing

298

202

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Although spreadsheet programs are used for small "scratchpad" applications, they are also used to develop many large applications. In recent years, we have learned a good deal about the errors that people make when they develop spreadsheets. In general, errors seem to occur in a few percent of all cells, meaning that for large spreadsheets, the issue is how many errors there are, not whether an error exists. These error rates, although troubling, are in line with those in programming and other human cognitive domains. In programming, we have learned to follow strict development disciplines to eliminate most errors. Surveys of spreadsheet developers indicate that spreadsheet creation, in contrast, is informal, and few organizations have comprehensive policies for spreadsheet development. Although prescriptive articles have focused on such disciplines as modularization and having assumptions sections, these may be far less important than other innovations, especially cell-by-cell code inspection after the development phase.

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Two methods of reducing overconfidence

Cited by 245 publications

References 11 publications

Overconfidence: Feedback and item difficulty effects

Overconfidence: Feedback and item difficulty effects

A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment

What We Know About Spreadsheet Errors

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