Two or Three Children? Turkish Fertility at a Crossroads

Abstract

IF YOU HAVE a young population, the future is yours," Turkey's current President (and former Prime Minister) Recep Erdogan said about the challenge of population aging in Turkey. "At the moment, thank God, 60 per cent of our population is under 30. But when we look at the increase, if we continue like this, alarm bells are ringing for 2037-40." 1 Erdogan's fear of an increase in the proportion of elderly people in Turkey is mainly driven by fertility rates that have been rapidly decreasing over the last several decades. Turkish women still have more than two children on average, but trends suggest an eventual decline below replacement level. At the same time, female education and employment have been increasing over the past 15 years. Even though female employment rates are still relatively low in Turkey in comparison to other European countries, they are rising especially for young cohorts of better-educated women, who also tend to have lower fertility.This article examines the determinants of Turkey's fertility decline using census and survey data. We show that the transition from a second to a third child is crucial for the future of fertility levels in Turkey. In a context of increasing education and employment opportunities for women, our results suggest that the decline in fertility reflects an important conflict between work-life balance in Turkey, which affects in particular mothers in formal employment. When women who have two children are employed, their contribution to household income is crucial. In the absence of possibilities to combine employment and family life, mothers who are active in formal jobs are thus most likely to decide against having a third child.Enabling women to work while raising children would allow families to generate the financial means that are needed for larger family size. However, the current policy setting in Turkey is conducive to impeding P O P U L AT I O N A N D D E

Socialized Healthcare and Women’s Fertility Decisions

“…Furthermore, the expansion of the FMP coincided with periods of robust economic growth experienced during most of the 2000s and the government's initiatives to increase education, most of which might have benefitted girls (Cin and Walker, 2016). The opposite pattern observed for the women ages 20-29 might have to do with the massive wave of welfare programs launched by the ruling AKP party and the discourse that emphasizes more traditional family behaviors and pronatalism openly advocated by President Erdogan (Aksoy and Billari, 2018;Greulich et al, 2016). As a consequence of these views and policies, the fertility decline in Turkey, which started in 1960s has stalled and subsequently slightly reversed under the AKP's rule (Aksoy and Billari, 2018).…”

Economic crisis and consumption: an almost ideal demand system estimation for Turkey with time-varying parameters

“…restaurants and hotels) and transport are also related to the urbanization. Accordingly, urbanization comes with rising women employment, which is one of the main reasons behind the decrease in poverty as explained in Greulich, Dasre, and Inan (2016). Declining household size and rising female labour led food away from home (FAFH) becoming prevalent as stated by Akbay, Tiryaki, and Gul (2007b).…”

Birth and employment transitions of women in Turkey: The emergence of role incompatibility

“…Basing their analysis on the Household Labor Force Survey from the first quarter of 2003, they find that having children, especially the presence of children aged below seven, decreases the probability of working among women in Turkey. Finally, Greulich, Dasre, and Inan (2016) analyze the determinants of fertility decline in Turkey, focusing on the birth of a third child and using data from the Survey of Income and Living Conditions (SILC) for the 2006-2011 period. Their findings indicate that stable 7 employment among women, especially in the formal sector, is negatively correlated with the birth of a third child, and that employment in the agricultural sector is also negatively associated with a third birth, albeit to a lesser degree.…”