Two Types of the East Asian Cold Surge and Their Impacts on El Niño

Feng, Jie; Lian, Tao; Li, Xichen; Sun, Cheng; Chen, Dake

doi:10.1029/2021gl096108

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Unfortunately, present climate models can hardly simulate HFPs in a realistic manner due to their multiplicative nature 7 , as they are closely related to various synoptic and sub-seasonal processes. For example, WWBs are found to be associated with the western Pacific tropical cyclones [31][32] , East Asian cold surge [33][34] , and the Madden-Julian Oscillation [35][36] . Since WWBs are modulated by ENSO with stronger and more frequent bursts to occur during large El Niño events, it is possible to formulate semi-stochastic, environment-dependent parameterization for them 37 .…”

Section: Forecast Uncertainty Due To Hfpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup

Tao¹,

Wang²,

Chen³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific usually serves as a primary precursor for an upcoming El Niño, while the strong atmospheric perturbations such as westerly wind burst and easterly wind surge sometimes play a decisive role in determining the final intensity of the event. The tropical Pacific Ocean has just experienced a rare 3-year La Niña, which accumulated a huge amount of warm water in the western basin by the winter of 2022. Using a state-of-the-art climate prediction system, here we show that the restored warm water is sufficient to boost a strong El Niño toward the end of 2023, and that an extreme event could take place if a few sizable westerly wind bursts would occur in spring and early summer. This prediction is not sensitive to initial errors within the tropical Pacific, but may be subject to some uncertainties brought about by influences from elsewhere.

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Section: Forecast Uncertainty Due To Hfpsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup

Tao¹,

Wang²,

Chen³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Of note is that the AM and SM are consistently observed in both the annual cycle and interannual variability (e.g., in period 1948–1979 and 1948–2010 as reported) of the HC, inferring that the AM and SM are not sensitive to the sample length. Meanwhile, considering that the meridional distribution of HC is subjected to the underlying meridional gradient of tropical SST (Feng et al., 2023; E. Schneider & Lindzen, 1977), an equatorially asymmetrical/symmetrical SST distribution would associate with equatorially asymmetrical/symmetrical HC anomalies. It is established that the AM variation is attached to SST over tropical Indian Ocean (Feng et al., 2013; Ma & Li, 2008), whose formation is due to the inhomogeneous warming trend over this region (J. Li & Feng, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Strengthened ENSO Amplitude Contributed to Regime Shift in the Hadley Circulation

Feng,

Wang,

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

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Understanding the variability in the Hadley circulation (HC) changes is crucial for understanding ocean‐atmosphere interactions. In this study, the variability in the boreal winter HC in the last 4 decades is explored using multiple reanalyzes and model simulations. The results show that regime shift occurred in the leading mode of HC variability. The primary mode of the recent HC is dominated by an equatorially symmetrical pattern, which was considered the second mode in previous studies. The regime shift in HC variability is mainly due to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which explains both the spatiotemporal variation and formation of HC variability. Moreover, the abilities of the models to reproduce HC variability is subject to their ability to simulate ENSO variability, suggesting that the ENSO has become a more important modulator of the HC variability in recent decades, and additional research is warranted to evaluate future climate changes and potential effects on the HC.

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“…Early pilot studies by Chang et al [12,13] revealed the extratropical-tropical interaction processes associated with the cold surges: immediately after the cold surge, the convection in the equatorial South China Sea intensifies, which further strengthens the local East Asian Hadley circulation and the two (Indian and Pacific Ocean) Walker circulations. Most of the cold surges last less than 4 days, and a few can persist more than 5 days [14][15][16]. Cold air outbreak events can be classified into three categories according to their propagation characteristics, two of which reach low latitudes (less than 30 • N) that can significantly enhance the rainfall in the equatorial South China Sea [15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linkage of Strong Intraseasonal Events of the East Asian Winter Monsoon to the Tropical Convections over the Western Pacific

Chen

Gong

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the most important climate system for transporting Arctic cold air to the tropics in boreal winter. Rapid intensification of the EAWM, such as a cold surge, can lead to increased tropical convection over the western Pacific, but the possible effects from the intraseasonal variation of EAWM is unclear. Using high temporal and spatial resolution satellite data, including Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation, we show that strong intraseasonal EAWM events are associated with increased tropical convection over the western Pacific for about 6–8 days. Our statistical analysis shows that the lifetime of a strong intraseasonal EAWM event is about 2 weeks, with the beginning, peak, and ending phases occurring at days −6, 0, and 6, respectively. During days 0 to 8, increased convection is observed over the western tropical Pacific, due to the anomalous convergence associated with the strengthened northerly winds over the South China Sea. Over land, increased precipitation is observed over Vietnam, northwestern Kalimantan, and the southern Philippines. In addition, the East Asian local Hadley circulation is strengthened during these days, in association with the enhanced tropical convection.

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Two Types of the East Asian Cold Surge and Their Impacts on El Niño

Cited by 14 publications

References 45 publications

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup

A Strong 2023/24 El Niño Is Staged by Tropical Pacific Warm Water Buildup

Strengthened ENSO Amplitude Contributed to Regime Shift in the Hadley Circulation

Linkage of Strong Intraseasonal Events of the East Asian Winter Monsoon to the Tropical Convections over the Western Pacific

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