Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis

Abstract

IntroductionWe aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries.Research design and methodsAn age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar’s 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources.ResultsBetween 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20–79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar—for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial.ConclusionsT2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.

Short- and longer-term all-cause mortality among SARS-CoV-2-infected persons and the pull-forward phenomenon in Qatar

“…About 60% of Qatar’s population are craft and manual workers (CMW) 13,14 who are typically single men, 20-49 years of age. 25 CMW are healthy by recruitment (healthy worker effect 26,27 ) and have lower levels of comorbidities such as diabetes and obesity; 28 that is a population not likely to be affected by the pull forward effect.…”

All-cause and COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic

“…CMWs may also have lower levels of comorbidities, such as diabetes and obesity. 31 Meanwhile, Qataris are a typical national population that includes both healthy and unhealthy individuals. Studies also suggest high prevalence of specific comorbidities or risk factors among Qataris, such as diabetes, obesity, hypertension and physical inactivity.…”

“…Studies also suggest high prevalence of specific comorbidities or risk factors among Qataris, such as diabetes, obesity, hypertension and physical inactivity. 31–36 Deaths due to road injuries may affect Qataris and the urban population more than CMWs. CMWs are unlikely to own cars, but use buses for transportation, unlike Qataris and the urban population who have high socioeconomic status and car ownership ratios.…”

A cross‐sectional study of the prevalence and clinical management of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes across the Middle East and Africa (PACT‐MEA): Study design and rationale

“…While there are studies that have established the prevalence of T2D in the Middle East and Africa, [21][22][23][24][25][26] there is limited information on the prevalence of eASCVD or on high/very high ASCVD risk in patients with T2D in this region. 3,[27][28][29][30][31] The CAPTURE study estimated the prevalence of ASCVD among patients with T2D across 13 countries from five continents and showed that one in three adults with T2D have established CVD, of which 9/10 had ASCVD.…”