Typhoon-Induced Storm Surge Analysis With Coawst on Different Modelled Forcing

Amunugama, Mangala; Suzuyama, Katsuyuki; Manawasekara, Chathura; Tanaka, Yoshisato; Xia, Yuhan

doi:10.2208/jscejoe.76.2_i_210

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Sarker (2018) used MIKE21 SW to simulate the impact of Cyclone Chapala on significant wave height in the Arabian Sea. Amunugama et al (2020) successfully reproduced typhoon phenomena, storm surges, and wave height by employing the COAWST model to simulate several violent typhoons in Japan. Hurricane Michael was simulated by Vijayan et al (2023) using the dynamic coupling of SWAN and ADCIRC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of significant wave height using a VMD-LSTM-rolling model in the South Sea of China

Ding,

Wu,

Shen

et al. 2024

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Accurate prediction of significant wave height is crucial for ocean engineering. Traditional time series prediction models fail to achieve satisfactory results due to the non-stationarity of significant wave height. Decomposition algorithms are adopted to address the problem of non-stationarity, but the traditional direct decomposition method exists information leakage. In this study, a hybrid VMD-LSTM-rolling model is proposed for non-stationary wave height prediction. In this model, time series are generated by a rolling method, after which each time series is decomposed, trained and predicted, then the predictions of each time series are combined to generate the final prediction of significant wave height. The performance of the LSTM model, the VMD-LSTM-direct model and the VMD-LSTM-rolling model are compared in terms of multi-step prediction. It is found that the error of the VMD-LSTM-direct model and the VMD-LSTM-rolling model is lower than that of the LSTM model. Due to the decomposition of the testing set, the VMD-LSTM-direct model has a slightly higher accuracy than the VMD-LSTM-rolling model. However, given the issue of information leakage, the accuracy of the VMD-LSTM-direct model is considered false. Thus, it has been proved that the VMD-LSTM-rolling model exhibits superiority in predicting significant wave height and can be applied in practice.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of significant wave height using a VMD-LSTM-rolling model in the South Sea of China

Ding,

Wu,

Shen

et al. 2024

Front. Mar. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This system allowed for on-line, two-way coupling and was also more computationally efficient and user-friendly for simulating wave-current interactions near the coast. Amunugama et al (2020) employed the COAWST model to simulate multiple intense typhoons in Japan and found that the COAWST model effectively reproduced typhoon phenomena, storm surges, and wave height. Vijayan et al (2023) utilized the dynamic coupling of SWAN and ADCIRC to simulate Hurricane Michael.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A hybrid CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model for significant wave height prediction in the South Sea of China

Ding,

Wu,

et al. 2024

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Accurate prediction of significant wave height is of great reference value for wave energy generation. However, due to the non-linearity and non-stationarity of significant wave height, traditional algorithms face difficulties in achieving satisfactory prediction results. In this study, a hybrid CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model is proposed for non-stationary significant wave height prediction. Based on the significant wave height in the South Sea of China, the performance of the SVM model, the GRU model, the LSTM model, the TimesNet model, the CEEMDAN-TimesNet model and the CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model are compared in terms of multi-step prediction. It is found that the prediction accuracy of the TimesNet model is higher than that of the SVM model, the GRU model and the LSTM model. The non-stationarity of significant wave height is reduced by CEEMDAN decomposition. Thus, the CEEMDAN-TimesNet model performs better than the TimesNet model in predicting significant wave height. The prediction accuracy of the CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model is further improved by employing VMD for the secondary decomposition of components with high and moderate complexity. Additionally, the CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model can accurately predict trends and extreme values of significant wave height with minimal phase shifts even during typhoon periods. The results demonstrate that the CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model exhibits superiority in predicting significant wave height.

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Simulated distributions of pumice rafts in Japan following eruptions at volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes

Nishikawa

Kuwatani

Tada

et al. 2023

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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Voluminous pumice rafts produced by the 2021 phreatomagmatic eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba, a submarine volcano located in the Izu-Bonin Islands, reached many Japanese ports and islands, damaging fisheries and hindering marine traffic and trade. This event emphasized the necessity for governments and stakeholders to develop plans in advance and prepare disaster mitigation measures before an eruption. To investigate when and to what extent pumice might intersect trade routes and arrive at islands after future eruptions, we conducted particle tracking simulations of eruptions at major volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes near Japan using the velocity field from the ocean reanalysis dataset. Seven major volcanoes that have produced pumice rafts in the past century were selected: the submarine volcano NNE of Iriomote Island, Izu-Tobu Volcanoes, Miyakejima, Bayonnaise Rocks, Nishinoshima, Kaitoku Seamount, and Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba. We partly reproduced the distribution of pumice arrivals recorded after the 1986 Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption, demonstrating the potential effectiveness of the simulations. We report likely pumice raft arrivals and drifting durations for the investigated eruptive scenarios, which may aid future risk assessments for pumice arrivals.

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Typhoon-Induced Storm Surge Analysis With Coawst on Different Modelled Forcing

Cited by 3 publications

References 12 publications

Prediction of significant wave height using a VMD-LSTM-rolling model in the South Sea of China

Prediction of significant wave height using a VMD-LSTM-rolling model in the South Sea of China

A hybrid CEEMDAN-VMD-TimesNet model for significant wave height prediction in the South Sea of China

Simulated distributions of pumice rafts in Japan following eruptions at volcanic islands and submarine volcanoes

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