Leaf water content (LWC) encapsulates critical aspects of tree physiology and is considered a proxy for assessing tree drought stress and the risk of forest decline; however, its measurement relies on destructive sampling and is thus less efficient. Advancements in hyperspectral imaging technology present new prospects for noninvasively evaluating LWC and mapping drought severity across forested regions. In this study, leaf samples were obtained from
Populus alba
var.
pyramidalis
, a species widely employed for constructing farmland shelterbelts in water-limited regions of northern China but notably susceptible to drought. These samples were dehydrated to varying degrees to generate concurrent LWC measurements and hyperspectral images, enabling the development of narrow-band and multivariate spectral prediction models for LWC estimation. Two visible-spectrum narrow-band indices identified, the single-band index (
R
627
) and the band subtraction index (
R
437
−
R
444
), demonstrated a strong correlation with LWC. Despite certain influences of variable preprocessing and selection on multivariate model performance, most models exhibited robust predictive accuracy for LWC. The FDRL-UVE-PLSR combination emerged as the optimal multivariate model, with
R
2
values reaching 0.9925 and 0.9853 and
RMSE
values below 0.0124 and 0.0264 for the calibration and validation datasets, respectively. Using this optimal model, along with localized spectral smoothing, moisture distribution across leaf surfaces was visualized, revealing lower water retention at the leaf margins compared to central regions. These methodologies provide critical insights into subtle water-associated physiological processes at the leaf scale and facilitate high-frequency, large-scale assessments and monitoring of drought stress levels and the risk of drought-induced tree mortality and forest degradation in drylands.
