UEFA Against the Champions? An Evaluation of the Recent Reform of the Champions League Qualification

Abstract

The paper evaluates the impact of the only reform in the Champions Path of UEFA Champions League qualifying system, effective from the 2018/19 season. In contrast to previous studies, our methodology considers five seasons instead of only one to filter out any possible season-specific attributes. The chances of some national champions decrease much stronger than suggested by the reduction in the number of available slots. Since the negative effects depend to a large extent on the arbitrary cutoffs in the access list, we propose to introduce some randomness into the determination of entry stages.

What is the optimal schedule for the UEFA Champions League groups?

“…Corona et al (2019) follow a Bayesian approach to uncover how the new seeding regime has increased the uncertainty over progression to the knockout stage. Csató (2022b) analyses the impact of changing the Champions League qualification system from the 2018/19 season.…”

Group draw with unknown qualified teams: A lesson from the 2022 FIFA World Cup draw

“…A better outcome can be provided by assigning the unknown placeholders according to the highest-ranked remaining team in each undecided contest. The proposed rule is currently used in the qualifications for the European club competitions (Csató, 2022d). The solution chosen by FIFA is detrimental to some national teams, including Ukraine.…”

“…The proposed rule is currently used in the qualifications for the European club competitions. 6 The solution chosen by FIFA is detrimental to some national teams, including Ukraine.…”

Group draw with unknown qualified teams: A lesson from the 2022 FIFA World Cup draw

“…A better outcome can be provided by assigning the unknown placeholders according to the highest-ranked remaining team in each undecided contest. The proposed rule is currently used in the qualifications for the European club competitions (Csató, 2022d). It is also absolutely fair if a lower-ranked team effectively takes the coefficient of its higher-ranked opponent after winning against the latter.…”