Ultra-short-term multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems based on multi-dimensional coupling characteristic mining and multi-task learning

Abstract

To address the challenges posed by the randomness and volatility of multi-energy loads in integrated energy systems for ultra-short-term accurate load forecasting, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term multi-energy load forecasting method based on multi-dimensional coupling feature mining and multi-task learning. Firstly, a method for mining multi-dimensional coupling characteristics of multi-energy loads is proposed, integrating multiple correlation analysis methods. By constructing coupling features of multi-energy loads and using them as input features of the model, the complex coupling relationships between multi-energy loads are effectively quantified. Secondly, an ultra-short-term multi-energy load forecasting model based on multi-task learning and a temporal convolutional network is constructed. In the prediction model construction phase, the potential complex coupling characteristics between multiple loads can be fully explored, and the potential temporal associations and long-term dependencies within data can be extracted. Then, the multi-task learning loss function weight optimization method based on homoscedastic uncertainty is used to optimize the forecasting model, realizing automatic tuning of the loss function weight parameters and further improving the prediction performance of the model. Finally, an experimental analysis is conducted using the integrated energy system of Arizona State University in the United States as an example. The results show that the proposed forecasting method has higher prediction accuracy than other prediction methods.