Unbowed, unbent, unbroken? Examining the validity of the responsibility to protect

Abstract

How has the sentiment around the “responsibility to protect” (R2P) changed over time? Scholars have debated far and wide whether the political norm enjoys widespread discursive acceptance or is on the brink of decline. This article contends that we can use sentiment analysis as an important indicator for norm validity. My analysis provides three crucial insights. First, despite the well-known fear of some scholars, R2P is still frequently invoked in Security Council deliberations on issues of international peace and security. Second, overall levels of affirmative language have remained remarkably stable over time. This finding indicates that R2P is far from being obliterated. Out of 130 states, 4 international organizations (IOs), and 2 non-governmental organizations (NGOs) invoking the norm, 65% maintain a positive net-sentiment. Third, zooming into Libya as a case illustration of a critical juncture, we see some minor tonal shifts from some pivotal member states. Adding the fact that interest constellations within the Permanent Five are heterogeneous concerning the third pillar of R2P, future military interventions, sanctioned under the norm, seem unlikely.

How different are offline and online diplomacy? A comparative analysis of public statements and SNS posts by delegates to the United Nations

“…For conference diplomacy in the UNSC, diplomatic communication has been analyzed mostly in a qualitative manner, which is typically based on detailed reading of a limited number of resolutions and speeches in UNSC meetings. A few exceptions employing quantitative text analysis include the use of the Latent Dirichlet Allocation method to analyze council resolutions (Hanania, 2021), speaker-topic network analysis of meeting records on Afghanistan (Eckhard et al, 2023), sentiment analysis to assess the validity of the norm of "the responsibility to protect" (Scherzinger, 2023), and word-embedding analysis to explore the meaning of the "threat to the peace" (Sakamoto, 2023b). These quantitative studies, however, have focused narrowly on the textual materials produced in the physical domain, that is, inside the council chamber.…”