Uncertainties in power plant design point evaluations

Lux, H.; Kemp, R.; Wenninger, R.; Biel, W.; Federici, G.; Morris, W.; Zohm, H.

doi:10.1016/j.fusengdes.2017.01.029

Cited by 20 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Therefore, PsepBT/τq95AR has been adopted as a divertor figure of merit. This differs from the divertor figure of merit for the pulsed European DEMO baseline from 2015 and therefore the work presented in [6], where Psep/τR was used.…”

Section: Physics Parametersmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Note that the majority of physics uncertainties has already been described in [6] but are included here for completeness.…”

Section: Physics Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The distribution shows the results of the uncertainty analysis while the black diamond shows the result of the nominal baseline assumptions. As discussed in [6], the balance of plant (BoP) is likely to only tolerate variations in net electric output of +5%/τ-20%. While over performing scenarios can be downgraded, scenarios with a net electric output below 400MW have to be classified as not meeting the DEMO requirements.…”

Section: Implications For Demo Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With respect to the previous analysis [6], not only has the list of physics uncertainties been extended, but also technological uncertainties have been considered. As expected, all technology uncertainties have a significant impact on the net electric output and suggest even the conservative pulsed European DEMO design only has a likelihood of ~60% in achieving its performance parameters.…”

Section: The Effect Of Uncertainties In the Technology Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Implications of uncertainties on European DEMO design

et al. 2019

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During the pre-conceptual design phase of fusion devices such as the European demonstration fusion power plant (DEMO), systems codes provide a fast evaluation of optimal design points and highlight high impact areas. However, determining or evaluating a design point at such an early stage comes with uncertainties in many of the design parameters. These uncertainties are both associated with the physics as well as the engineering basis of the European DEMO design. The work applies an uncertainty quantification analysis to the 2017 pulsed European DEMO design using the PROCESS systems code. It assumes that DEMO will be built as suggested by the baseline and explores what implications the currently known physics and engineering uncertainties have on the expected performance parameters (net electric output and pulse length), while optimising the fusion gain Q. A more detailed single parameter analysis is clearly identifying high impact parameters. This is confirming previous investigations as well as revealing new areas that warrant deeper investigation in particular in the technology area.

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Section: Physics Parametersmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Note that the majority of physics uncertainties has already been described in [6] but are included here for completeness.…”

Section: Physics Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Implications For Demo Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Effect Of Uncertainties In the Technology Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Implications of uncertainties on European DEMO design

et al. 2019

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“…The strongest sensitivities are found for the plasma elongation, confinement and density. Certainly the uncertainty on each parameter is not the same and in [21] a proposal for the probability distribution of system code input parameters is presented.…”

Section: Systems Code Sensitivity Analyses and Trade-off Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overview of the DEMO staged design approach in Europe

Federici¹,

Bachmann²,

et al. 2019

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This paper describes the status of the pre-conceptual design activities in Europe to advance the technical basis of the design of a DEMOnstration Fusion Power Plant (DEMO) to come in operation around the middle of this century with the main aims of demonstrating the production of few hundred MWs of net electricity, the feasibility of operation with a closedtritium fuel cycle, and maintenance systems capable of achieving adequate plant availability. This is expected to benefit as much as possible from the ITER experience, in terms of design, licensing, and construction. Emphasis is on an integrated design approach, based on system engineering, which provides a clear path for urgent R&D and addresses the main design integration issues by taking account critical systems interdependencies and inherent uncertainties of important design assumptions (physics and technology). A design readiness evaluation, together with a technology maturation and down selection strategy are planned through structured and transparent Gate Reviews. By embedding industry experience in the design from the beginning it will ensure that early attention is given to technology readiness and industrial feasibility, costs, maintenance, power conversion, nuclear safety and licensing aspects.

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