Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change

Syed, F. S.; Iqbal, Waheed; Syed, Ahsan Ali Bukhari; Rasul, Ghulam

doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1963-x

Cited by 53 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…It is pertinent to mention here that though CORDEX-SA experiments provide high resolution present and future climate simulations, however, their ability to reproduce the observed hydro-climatology over the steep HKH topography is by hardly any means better than their forcing CMIP5 GCMs, which being consistent to their older versions and downscaled experiments, substantially over-(under-) estimate precipitation (temperatures) and fail to reproduce summer cooling [7,15,16,[82][83][84][85][86][87]. Such cold and wet biases in the CORDEX-SA and their CMIP5 forcing experiments are larger than their projected end of 21st century climatic changes under RCP8.5, indicating huge climatic uncertainty over the UIB [16].…”

Section: Near-future Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 96%

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Hasson

2016

Climate

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Future of the crucial Himalayan water supplies has generally been assessed under the anthropogenic warming, typically consistent amid observations and climate model projections. However, conflicting mid-to-late melt-season cooling within the upper Indus basin (UIB) suggests that the future of its melt-dominated hydrological regime and the subsequent water availability under changing climate has yet been understood only indistinctly. Here, the future water availability from the UIB is presented under both observed and projected-though likely but contrasting-climate change scenarios. Continuation of prevailing climatic changes suggests decreased and delayed glacier melt but increased and early snowmelt, leading to reduction in the overall water availability and profound changes in the overall seasonality of the hydrological regime. Hence, initial increases in the water availability due to enhanced glacier melt under typically projected warmer climates, and then abrupt decrease upon vanishing of the glaciers, as reported earlier, is only true given the UIB starts following uniformly the global warming signal. Such discordant future water availability findings caution the impact assessment communities to consider the relevance of likely (near-future) climate change scenarios-consistent to prevalent climatic change patterns-in order to adequately support the water resource planning in Pakistan.

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Section: Near-future Climate Change Scenariomentioning

confidence: 96%

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Hasson

2016

Climate

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“…Weakening of the zonal temperature gradient in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the model leading to increase in monsoon rainfall in response to warming has been attributed to wet bias (Turner and Annamalai 2012). A climate change study over India showed the Q0 and Q14 simulations to have a wet bias and Q1 a dry bias (Kumar et al 2011), whereas other similar studies over India showed a wet bias (Rupa Kumar et al 2006;Syed et al 2013). The PRECIS simulations also overestimated the number of rainy days in a year (a day with area average rainfall C1.0 mm).…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Seasonal rainfall statistics for the three simulations for three time slices and a baseline are given in Kumar et al 2006;Kumar et al 2011;Syed et al 2013). Rupa Kumar et al (2006) suggested that wet bias may be partly due to the procedures used in determining the spatially averaged observed rainfall quantities.…”

Section: Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in climate over the Indus river basin using a high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS)

et al. 2014

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A regional climate modelling system, the Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, has been used to study future climate change scenarios over Indus basin for the impact assessment. In this paper we have examined the three Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions simulations selected from 17-member perturbed physics ensemble generated using Hadley Centre Coupled Module. The climate projections based on IPCC SRES A1B scenario are analysed over three time slices, near future , middle of the twenty first century , and distant future . The baseline simulation was evaluated with observed data for seasonal and spatial patterns and biases. The model was able to resolve features on finer spatial scales and depict seasonal variations reasonably well, although there were quantitative biases. The model simulations suggest a nonuniform change in precipitation overall, with an increase in precipitation over the upper Indus basin and decrease over the lower Indus basin, and little change in the border area between the upper and lower Indus basins. A decrease in winter precipitation is projected, particularly over the southern part of the basin. Projections indicate greater warming in the upper than the lower Indus, and greater warming in winter than in the other seasons. The simulations suggest an overall increase in the number of rainy days over the basin, but a decrease in the number of rainy days accompanied by an increase in rainfall intensity in the border area between the upper and lower basins, where the rainfall amount is highest.

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“…Syed et al [4] found the uncertainties in the south Asian summer monsoon using RegCM4 and PRECIS RCMs after downscaling from same global dataset and concluded that the biases appear to come from the difference in the RCM Physics. Islam et al [5] investigated the frequency of cold and warm spells duration over Pakistan using PRECIS regional climate model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…South Asia has diverse climate and characterize by complex topographical features and marked extensive mountain ranges of HKH. Precipitation and temperature regimes of the region are complex due to different weather systems that prevail during the whole year and pose a great challenge to the regional climate models in reproducing the observed climatology [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temperature and Precipitation Climatology Assessment over South Asia using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3): An Evaluation of the Model Performance

Hassan¹,

Penfei²,

Iqbal³

et al. 2014

J Earth Sci Clim Change

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Climate modeling is a significant tool to reproduce the observed features of present climate changes and can provide reliable estimations for future climate changes at global and regional levels. In the present study we use latest version of International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM4.3) to examine its ability by analyzing the European Community-Hamburg atmospheric model (ECHAM5) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) 40 years reanalysis data (ERA-40) over South Asia. Seasonal mean climatology and annual cycle are compared with different observation based data sets and also with the reanalysis and driving GCM. Two experiments are conducted for present day simulation by using ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 GCM to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions. In spite of complex topography of the domain RegCM4.3 shows an improved performance in various aspects as compared to the earlier applications of this model over South Asia. Near surface air temperature are reproduced well over the most part of the domain. Indian monsoon precipitation patterns are better captured by RegCM4.3 as compared to the driving data set of ECHAM5 and ERA40. Simulation results show that RegCM4.3 has cold bias in winter and summer over the foothills of the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. Simulation with ERA40 and ECHAM5 overestimated the seasonal mean precipitation over some part of the domain which requires further improvement in the physical parameterization scheme of RegCM4.3.

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Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change

Cited by 53 publications

References 65 publications

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Projected changes in climate over the Indus river basin using a high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS)

Temperature and Precipitation Climatology Assessment over South Asia using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3): An Evaluation of the Model Performance

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