Uncertainty Analysis and Integrated Modeling Application During Field Development

Abstract

Severneftegazprom OJSC is the operator of the Yuzhno-Russkoye field. In accordance with the field development strategy, in 2018 the commercial development of the Turonian formation began, envisaging the drilling of more than 100 wells to a formation with abnormally high pressure and low permeability and their tie-in to the existing gas gathering network. The task that faces the company is to assess the attainability of the planned targets on the basis of the existing field development concept and surface facilities configuration. A separate focus is on the geological uncertainties analysis of the Turonian formation and their impact on the gas production profile. For the uncertainty analysis, a sector hydrodynamic model was built and history matched, which included the first launch clusters with the U-shaped wells and the multistage hydraulically fractured wells (MSHF). The assessment was made for the impact of geological uncertainties, the alternative well locations, as well as the number of hydraulic fracture stages and fracture parameters on the cumulative gas production. To study the interference of new wells with the existing network, an integrated model was created, which combined the full-scale Black Oil hydrodynamic models of the Cenoman and Turonian reservoirs with the unified compositional gathering network with more than 250 wells.