Uncertainty analysis in carbon cycle models of forest ecosystems: Research needs and development of a theoretical framework to estimate error propagation

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Boutin, Robert D.; Chertov, Oleg

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.024

Cited by 63 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The main sources of errors include errors with the model itself, input data and model parameters (Raupach et al 2005;Wang et al 2009). Input data and model parameters were considered the most important error sources (Böttcher et al 2008;Larocque et al 2008). The Monte-Carlo method was applied to calculate the possible effects of the errors associated with input data (inventory of forest area and volume) and regression coefficients used for estimation of dominant tree biomass.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for forest vegetation carbon storage in Fujian Province, China, determined from forest inventories

et al. 2011

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Carbon storage in forest vegetation of Fujian Province plays a significant role in the terrestrial carbon budget in China. The purposes of this study are: (1) to evaluate how the afforestation and reforestation programs established in Fujian Province influence carbon storage in forest ecosystems; (2) to assess the influence of tree species, forest age and ownership changes on vegetation carbon storage; and (3) 84 Tg C over the study period. Carbon storage varied with dominant forest species, forest age and forest ownership, suggesting that increases in vegetation carbon potentials can be achieved through selection of forest species and management of age structures. Implementation of afforestation and reforestation programs in Fujian Province over the past three decades Plant Soil (2011) 345:125-140

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential for forest vegetation carbon storage in Fujian Province, China, determined from forest inventories

et al. 2011

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“…The environmental integrity of REDD requires the generation of real, permanent, and verifiable emission reductions (UNDP 2009). Despite a proliferation of REDD activities, the assessment of emission reductions contains substantial uncertainty (Brown and Lugo 1992, Monni et al 2007, Grainger 2008, Larocque et al 2008). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertain Emission Reductions from Forest Conservation: REDD in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Watson¹,

Mourato²,

Milner‐Gulland³

2013

E&S

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ABSTRACT. The environmental integrity of a mechanism rewarding Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) depends on appropriate accounting for emission reductions. Largely stemming from a lack of forest data in developing countries, emission reductions accounting contains substantial uncertainty as a result of forest carbon stock estimates, where the application of biome-averaged data over large forest areas is commonplace. Using a case study in the Bale Mountains in Ethiopia, we exemplify the implications of primary and secondary forest carbon stock estimates on predicted REDD project emission reductions and revenues. Primary data estimate area-weighted mean forest carbon stock of 195 tC/ha ± 81, and biomeaveraged data reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underestimate forest carbon stock in the Bale Mountains by as much as 63% in moist forest and 58% in dry forest. Combining forest carbon stock estimates and uncertainty in voluntary carbon market prices demonstrates the financial impact of uncertainty: potential revenues over the 20-year project ranged between US$9 million and US$185 million. Estimated revenues will influence decisions to implement a project or not and may have profound implications for the level of benefit sharing that can be supported. Strong financial incentives exist to improve forest carbon stock estimates in tropical forests, as well as the environmental integrity of REDD projects.

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“…This model has been used as a management evaluation tool in many types of world forest ecosystems Kahle et al, 2008;Larocque et al, 2008;Shaw et al, 2006). The model is specially designed to examine the impacts of different management strategies or natural disturbance regimes on long-term site productivity and carbon sequestration.…”

Section: A S Komarov and V N Shanin: Simulation Modelling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

Komarov

Shanin

2012

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km 2 in distinct environmental conditions were chosen. Simulations were carried out with two climatic scenarios (ambient climate and climate change) and different levels of nitrogen deposition (ambient value and increase by 6 and 12 kg N ha −1 yr −1 ). The simulations showed that increased nitrogen deposition leads to increased productivity of trees, increased organic matter content in organic soil horizons, and an increased portion of deciduous tree species. For the climate change scenario, the same effects on forest productivity and similar shifts in species composition were predicted but the accumulation of organic matter in soil was decreased.

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Uncertainty analysis in carbon cycle models of forest ecosystems: Research needs and development of a theoretical framework to estimate error propagation

Cited by 63 publications

References 38 publications

Potential for forest vegetation carbon storage in Fujian Province, China, determined from forest inventories

Potential for forest vegetation carbon storage in Fujian Province, China, determined from forest inventories

Uncertain Emission Reductions from Forest Conservation: REDD in the Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

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