Uncertainty Analysis of Energy Production for a 3 × 50 MW AC Photovoltaic Project Based on Solar Resources

Jamil, Irfan; Zhao, Jun; Zhang, Li; Rafique, Syed Furqan; Jamil, Rehan

doi:10.1155/2019/1056735

Cited by 24 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Reducing CO 2 and improving human living standard is one of the advantages of utilizing rooftop for BAPV system [40]. The emission of CO 2 reduction is related to the amount of energy that can be produced by the BAPV system.…”

Section: Criteria Of Environment Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy AHP Based Optimal Design Building-Attached Photovoltaic System for Academic Campus

Hapsari

Subiyanto

2020

International Journal of Photoenergy

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Several algorithms have been developed for building-attached photovoltaic system (BAPV) planning in educational institute based on PV capacity. Fewer studies on optimization algorithms for BAPV system planing on campus have been reported which considers a technoeconomic assessment. Therefore, a well-known robust algorithm is used as an optimization technique of BAPV system and considers technoeconomic assessment on campus. This paper presents a combination of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) with fuzzy theory (fuzzy AHP) for selecting a suitable and optimal design of BAPV system on academic campus. The BAPV system design is based on roof area and load profile at the project site. Five BAPV systems have been designed using five different types of PV. The design was comprehensively assessed by experts through a questionnaire with pairwise comparison model. Fuzzy AHP used to consider the qualitative and quantitative assessments that can affect the selection process. The comprehensive assessment in criteria consists of sizing systems, technical, economic, and environmental perspectives as criteria. The perspective is divided into 13 subcriteria. The results show degree of importance from the criteria-based fuzzy AHP as follows: technical > economic > environment > sizing system. Based on the assessment of criteria and subcriteria, design with monocrystalline is most suitable and polycrystalline as the least suitable design for BAPV system connected to grid and battery energy storage system in case study.

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Section: Criteria Of Environment Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy AHP Based Optimal Design Building-Attached Photovoltaic System for Academic Campus

Hapsari

Subiyanto

2020

International Journal of Photoenergy

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“…Limited studies have been addressed on the use of PV and wind energy sources due to uncertainty. The annual PV energy estimate is presented in [18], considering the uncertainty of energy generation. In [19], changes and predictions of PV power system uncertainty in Arizona, USA have been investigated as the main challenge for operators to maintain power balance and costs minimization.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal design of an off-grid hybrid renewable energy system considering generation and load uncertainty: the case of Zanjan city, Iran

2021

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In this paper, designing a hybrid stand-alone photovoltaic/wind energy system with battery storage (PV/WT/Batt) is presented to minimize the total cost of the hybrid system and considering reliability constraints for Zanjan city in Iran country considering generation and load uncertainties. The total cost includes the cost of the system components and load losses cost and also deficit power probability-hourly interruption probability index, which is defined as the reliability constraint. The optimal size of the system components is found using an improved crow search algorithm based on mutation and crossover operators of the genetic algorithm to prevent premature convergence. The optimal designing of the hybrid system is implemented considering the uncertainty of photovoltaic and wind resources as well as the load demand of the system based on the probability distribution functions of uncertain parameters using Monte Carlo simulation. The simulations are implemented in two deterministic and probabilistic scenarios. In the deterministic scenario, the optimal design of various combinations of the hybrid system is investigated in view of the system cost and deficit power probability probability-hourly interruption probability index based on the improved crow search algorithm with and without the cost of load loss. The results of the deterministic scenario showed that the system cost is increased considering the cost of load loss, but the system load is supplied with higher reliability. Also, the deterministic results cleared the superiority of the improved crow search algorithm compared with conventional crow search algorithm and particle swarm optimization methods. Moreover, the results of the system designing showed that considering the uncertainty, the system cost increases, and the reliability is significantly improved. The results cleared that the system cost in deterministic and probabilistic designing is obtained 1.0108 M$ and 1.210 M$, respectively for load supply equal to 153.87 MWh. So, due to the inherent nature of the uncertainty in the renewable resources power generation as well as continuous load changes, a probabilistic approach of the hybrid system designing is necessary to know the accurate cost and reliability. Article highlights Effective performance of the proposed method in system designing with lowest cost and higher reliability. Achieving to a more reliable hybrid energy system with considering cost of load losses in designing. Increasing the system the cost and improving the reliability considering uncertainties of generation and load.

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“…These non-renewable energy sources are the major cause of environmental pollution and add a significant amount of CO 2 to atmosphere [6], [7]. Since last two decades the peoples of Pakistan are facing a 10-12h/day load shedding due to the short fall of electricity even though a population of around 43% population lives without electricity and around 50,000 small villages do not have access to the national grid [8], [9]. Pakistan is the country whose major electricity production is based on the non-renewable imported fuels which are very costly and pollutant hence the electricity production cost has direct relation with the increase and decrease in the cost of imported fuel in the international market [10]- [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economical Benefits of Integrating Solar Energy Based DG units on an Existing Low Voltage Distribution Network in Pakistan

2021

IJETER

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Availability of electrical energy plays a dynamic role in the social and economic development of any country. The energy mix in Pakistan is majorly dependent on the non-renewable energy sources which are imported,which results a short of electricity production while the consumers are facing a load shedding of 10-12h/day. This technological revolution, regulatory environment and changing economic conditions increase theimportance of Distributed Generation. Distributed Generation not only meets the energy requirements of any country but also improves the various issues such as saving in cost, reduction in technical losses, improvement in the power quality, reliability and security, reduction in power losses and environmental concerns to decrease the greenhouse gases. This paper presents the comparison of the energy utilization and its price between the existing low voltage system and the proposed solar PV system integration. It is seen that with the integration of an optimized PV system we will not only meet the energy requirement of our existing system but also inject some amount of energy in access to the national grid. Also a cost to benefit ratio of 2.63 is calculated which means the cost of this modification can be reversed in a time less than 3 years while the normal life of a PV system is taken as 25 years

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Uncertainty Analysis of Energy Production for a 3 × 50 MW AC Photovoltaic Project Based on Solar Resources

Cited by 24 publications

References 16 publications

Fuzzy AHP Based Optimal Design Building-Attached Photovoltaic System for Academic Campus

Fuzzy AHP Based Optimal Design Building-Attached Photovoltaic System for Academic Campus

Optimal design of an off-grid hybrid renewable energy system considering generation and load uncertainty: the case of Zanjan city, Iran

Economical Benefits of Integrating Solar Energy Based DG units on an Existing Low Voltage Distribution Network in Pakistan

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