Uncertainty analysis of phased mission systems with probabilistic timed automata

Abstract

Abstract-A phased mission is one in which the requirements may alter over time. We present a novel approach to analyse phased mission systems using probabilistic timed automata (PTA). We show how to construct PTA models which allow one to reflect system uncertainty, and how to analyse these models using the PRISM probabilistic model checker. We illustrate our approach via a simple case study, namely path planning for a Mars exploration rover, since the mission of the rover can be expected to be an instance of phased mission systems.

Efficient solution of extended Multiple-Phased Systems

“…In a MPS, the standard question is to compute the reliability of the system, i.e. the probability that the system survives the mission, but optimization also plays a role [4], especially for SMS to determine the best maintenance policy, as well as sensitivity analysis [3,5] to allow to reason about the structure of the mission and their parameters.…”

Towards the Automated Verification of Weibull Distributions for System Failure Rates

“…It supports the analysis of several types of probabilistic models: Discrete-Time Markov Chains (DTMCs), CTMCs [13], Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) [14], and Probabilistic Timed Automata (PTAs) [15], with optional extensions of costs and rewards. PRISM models are expressed using the PRISM modelling language, which is based on the Reactive Modules formalism [16] Every command consists of a guard and a non-deterministic choice of updates.…”