Uncertainty and Information Flows in Humanitarian Agencies

Abstract

Humanitarian agencies struggle with high uncertainty. The focus here is on uncertainty that grows out of the internal complexity of the agencies themselves, rather than simply emanating from their war-ridden environments. This is illustrated with a study of uncertainty management and information processing in two UN agencies working for the victims of the conflict in southern Sudan. Data from 1995 relief distributions are used to simulate aspects of uncertainty; paradoxically, uncertainty increased with growing success of the relief operation. The findings is in tune with observations from the same region that Jok (1996) reported in this journal. While uncertainty may remain difficult to reduce, co-operation among agencies and public confidence in their work provide functional equivalents for certainty.

Decision-making at the sharp end: a survey of literature related to decision-making in humanitarian contexts

“…The majority of the documents on humanitarian action considered in the survey made the point that humanitarian decision-makers work in challenging contexts-they are required to 'make hard decisions under pressure and with minimal information' (Colombo and Checchi 2018). The significance of the decisions that have to be made (Cosgrave 1996;Hayles 2010;Metcalfe et al 2011), lack of information on which to base these decisions (Hobbs et al 2012;Ortuño et al 2013;Colombo and Checchi 2018), consequent uncertainty (Benini 1997;Kruke and Olsen 2012;Ortuño et al 2013), and lack of time in which to make decisions (Cosgrave 1996;Hayles 2010;Comes 2016) are regularly cited as conditions that are prevalent in the humanitarian context, and which have a strong influence on the way in which decisions are made. Only a few authors mention explicitly that these conditions are not general to all emergencies (Ortuño et al 2013) or may differ from one 'phase' of an emergency to another (Comes 2016).…”

“…Many of the documents included in the survey argue that humanitarian crises are by their nature uncertainthey are dynamic, complex, unpredictable, and unstable (Benini 1997;Besiou et al 2011;Metcalfe et al 2011;Hobbs et al 2012;Kruke and Olsen 2012). Uncertainty in a crisis environment can be defined as 'a sense of doubt that blocks or delays action' (Lipshitz et al 2001: 337) and can manifest in various ways.…”

“…Uncertainty in a crisis environment can be defined as 'a sense of doubt that blocks or delays action' (Lipshitz et al 2001: 337) and can manifest in various ways. Some typologies have identified up to 19 different kinds of uncertainty (see for example Benini 1997;Lipshitz et al 2001;Klein 2009). Overall, in conducting the survey, the researchers identified two general categories: uncertainty about the current situation (when it is not clear what is happening now) and uncertainty about the future situation (when it is not clear what is going to happen in terms of either how an event will unfold or what the consequences of actions will be).…”

“…The quality of information is also a persistent problem (Cosgrave 1996;Benini 1997;King 2005; Knox Clarke and Darcy 2014; Van De Walle and Comes 2015; Colombo and Checchi 2018), and even where good quality information is available, it is not always relevant to the specific decision which needs to be made (Zhang et al 2002) as each decision made by each decisionmaker at each organisation will require different information (King 2005;Gralla et al 2013). Information will also become out of date (and therefore irrelevant) as the situation changes (Zhang et al 2002;Hobbs et al 2012;Obrecht and Bourne 2018): a problem compounded in the humanitarian sector by weak monitoring systems (Knox Clarke and Darcy 2014; Knox Clarke and Campbell 2015).…”

Interorganizational trust, boundary spanning, and humanitarian relief coordination

“…Such an approach, however, would need to have a strong foundation of shared values and standards as these underpin decisions among professionals to extend trust across organizational boundaries to secure improved coordination (Benini, 1997). Several of our respondents noted that aid delivery has improved markedly in the years since Kosovo, largely due to the development of service and professional standards by a number of groups: "I think there' s been a sort of a quantum leap in the last four years, five years, in organizations understanding the need for standards, minimum standards in the work they do, particularly in service positions, and in particular Sphere standards and similar internal standards which have been developed by MSF [Médecins sans Frontières] or other organizations" (Lin).…”