Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1992 performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant

Helton, Jon C.; Anderson, D.R.; Baker, Bill J.; Bean, J.E.; Berglund, Johan; Beyeler, Walter E.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Hora, Stephen C.; Iuzzolino, H.J.; Knupp, Patrick; Marietta, M.G.; Rath, Jonathan S.; Rechard, Robert P.; Roache, Patrick J.; Rudeen, David Keith; Salari, Kambiz; Schreiber, J.D.; Swift, Peter N.; Tierney, Martin S.; Vaughn, Palmer

doi:10.1016/0951-8320(95)00089-5

Cited by 47 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…A wide number of methods for uncertainty analysis have been developed and overviews are available in several reviews [51, 52, 53, 54]. Among them, sampling-based approaches are effective and widely used [55, 56, 57, 58, 59]. …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel integrated approach for the hazardous radioactive dust source terms estimation in future nuclear fusion power plants

Poggi

Malizia

Ciparisse

et al. 2016

Heliyon

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An open issue still under investigation by several international entities working on the safety and security field for the foreseen nuclear fusion reactors is the estimation of source terms that are a hazard for the operators and public, and for the machine itself in terms of efficiency and integrity in case of severe accident scenarios. Source term estimation is a crucial key safety issue to be addressed in the future reactors safety assessments, and the estimates available at the time are not sufficiently satisfactory. The lack of neutronic data along with the insufficiently accurate methodologies used until now, calls for an integrated methodology for source term estimation that can provide predictions with an adequate accuracy. This work proposes a complete methodology to estimate dust source terms starting from a broad information gathering. The wide number of parameters that can influence dust source term production is reduced with statistical tools using a combination of screening, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Finally, a preliminary and simplified methodology for dust source term production prediction for future devices is presented.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel integrated approach for the hazardous radioactive dust source terms estimation in future nuclear fusion power plants

Poggi

Malizia

Ciparisse

et al. 2016

Heliyon

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“…[55][56][57] However, the refinement of the Culebra transport model through time, the development of an appropriate set of model parameters, and an assessment of the subjective uncertainty in these parameters is leading to the conclusion that the Culebra does not constitute a significant pathway to the accessible environment at the WIPP.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Ramsey

Blaine

Garner

et al. 2000

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

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The following topics related to radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) are presented:(i) mathematical description of models, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results arising from subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty for individual releases, and (iii) construction of complementary cumulative distribution fimctions (CCDFS) arising from stochastic (i.e., aleatory) uncertainty. The presented results indicate that radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite does not constitute a serious threat to the effectiveness of the WIPP as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. Even when the effects of uncertain analysis inputs are taken into account, no radionuclide transport to the boundary with the accessible environment was observed; thus the associated CCDFS for comparison with the boundary line specified in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's standard for the geologic disposal of radioactive waste (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) are degenerate in the sense of having a probability of zero of exceeding a release of zero.

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“…[21][22][23][24][25][26][40][41][42][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82]such analyses are open to the criticism that there may not be enough information available to justify the definition of the distributions indicated in Eq. (2.4).…”

Section: Evidence Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory

Helton

Johnson²,

Oberkampf

et al. 2007

Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering

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127

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Prepared by Sandia Nat ional Labor at ori es Albu querque , Ne w Mexico 87185 and Livermore , Ca liforn ia 94550Sandia is a mult iprogr am laborat or y operated by Sandia Corpo ratio n, a Lockh eed Mar tin Compa ny, for th e United States Depa rt ment of Energy's National Nuclear Securi ty Admi nistration under Contract DE-A C04-94AL 85000 .App rov ed for public release; furth er dissemination unlimited . (rI1) Sandia National LaboratoriesIssued by Sandia National Laboratories, operated for the United States Department of Energy by Sandia Corporation. NOTICE:This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, make any warranty, express or implied, or assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represent that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors or subcontractors. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government, any agency thereof, or any of their contractors.Printed in the United States of America. This report has been reproduced directly from the best available copy. AbstractEvidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a samplingbased computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impr...

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Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained in the 1992 performance assessment for the waste isolation pilot plant

Cited by 47 publications

References 59 publications

A novel integrated approach for the hazardous radioactive dust source terms estimation in future nuclear fusion power plants

A novel integrated approach for the hazardous radioactive dust source terms estimation in future nuclear fusion power plants

Radionuclide and colloid transport in the Culebra Dolomite and associated complementary cumulative distribution functions in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory

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