Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels

Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash

doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.10.007

Cited by 48 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…3 Recent empirical evidence, mostly using vector-autoregression (VAR) models, tends to find a negative impact of uncertainty shocks on macroeconomic outcomes (Bloom, 2009;Gourio et al, 2013;Carrière-Swallow and Céspedes, 2013;Caggiano et al, 2014;Choi and Loungani, 2015;Leduc and Liu, 2016;Surico and Mumtaz, 2016).…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…For countries other than Canada, the UK, and the US, they conduct searches in the native language of the newspaper for relevant terms. In the recent literature, the economic policy uncertainty index has been widely used to complement the measure of uncertainty based on financial market data Caggiano et al, 2014;Choi and Loungani, 2015;Bernal et al, 2016;Gulen and Ion, 2016).…”

Section: Alternative Uncertainty Measurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, the sensitivity test using STAN leaves us with fewer observations than KLEMS. Following common practice in the literature (Bloom, 2009;Carrière-Swallow and Céspedes, 2013;Gourio et al, 2013;Caggiano et al, 2014;Choi and Loungani, 2015;Leduc and Liu, 2016), we construct country-specific measures of time-varying uncertainty using aggregate stock market volatility. This measure of uncertainty is readily available for long periods and allows for straightforward cross-country comparison.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints

Choi

Furceri

Huang

2018

Journal of International Money and Finance

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte.

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Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Alternative Uncertainty Measurementioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints

Choi

Furceri

Huang

2018

Journal of International Money and Finance

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“…Their results bear out that the policy uncertainty index leads to a significant decline in employment for the US and for a panel of 12 major economies. Choi and Loungani (2015) similarly, explore the role of uncertainty shocks on unemployment dynamics by distinguishing between aggregate and sectoral channels of volatility and comparing their effects on the unemployment rate. They show that the response of unemployment to aggregate uncertainty and sectoral uncertainty is different, and thus, that sectoral uncertainty shocks have more persistent effects for unemployment.…”

Section: IImentioning

confidence: 99%

On the significance of labour reallocation for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries

Bakas

Panagiotidis

Pelloni

2016

Journal of Empirical Finance

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We explore the macroeconomic effects of sectoral shifts for 15 European countries. An extensive panel is constructed that allows us the assessment of the impact of labor reallocation on unemployment in the European context. Indexes of labor market turbulence based on alternative sectoral disaggregation are constructed. The effect of labor reallocation on unemployment is found to be positive and significant in all different specifications. This remains robust when we take into account volatility measures in the model. JEL classification: E24, E32, J21, R23, C23Keywords: labor reallocation, sectoral shifts hypothesis, unemployment, EU * Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Richard Bailey and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments and helpful suggestions. We would also like to thank Karim Abadir and Paolo Giordani for their useful comments and suggestions on earlier versions of this work. All remaining errors are our own.Bakas:

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“…Another reason for the sluggish decline in U.S. unemployment is adverse shocks to particular sectors, particularly construction and finance. There is evidence that these shocks, and the uncertainty generated about sectoral fortunes, were particularly important in accounting for long-duration unemployment (see Chehal, Loungani, and Trehan 2010;IMF 2010;and Choi and Loungani 2015). Though the U.S. unemployment rate has now dipped below 5 percent, there are still some structural issues in the labor market.…”

Section: Does Growth Create Jobs? Evidence For Advanced and Developinmentioning

confidence: 99%

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

Fund¹

2016

IMF Research Bulletin

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Global job creation remains sluggish, prompting calls for policy actions to raise economic growth. Will growth create jobs? Recent IMF research documents a striking variation among countries in the extent to which employment responds to GDP growth over the course of a year. In some countries, labor markets are quite responsive: when growth picks up, employment goes up and unemployment falls; in other countries the response is quite muted. Thus, a pickup in growththrough aggregate demand stimulus for instance-will result in more jobs, but the extent of job creation in the short run could vary sharply across countries. Some structural measures can thus serve as useful complementary policies, as also discussed in IMF research. The global unemployment rate increased sharply during the Great Recession to a peak of 6.2 percent in 2009 (Figure 1a). The increase in unemployment in

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Uncertainty and unemployment: The effects of aggregate and sectoral channels

Cited by 48 publications

References 36 publications

Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints

Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints

On the significance of labour reallocation for European unemployment: Evidence from a panel of 15 countries

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2016

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