Uncertainty as a factor in Policy Research and Teaching

Abstract

Decision making in the public domain, particularly at the strategic level, is as challenging as that in the private realm, perhaps even more so in some respects. The difficulties confronting actors in such a setting stem from many sources, most of them reasonably well understood and explored in a fairly systematic fashion. There are however exceptions to the rule. Uncertainty probably falls into this category in that it does not loom large on the public policy research and teaching agendas; indeed, the subject only surfaces occasionally and selectively.The limited attention accorded to uncertainty in the literature (and, by implication, in the field), as well as the classroom, cannot be an accurate reflection of its state in the external or internal organisational environment of the public sector because of its pervasive nature and profound impact on decision outcomes. Rather, it may be attributable to the perception that this is an elusive concept and perhaps one of the strictly technical variety. Whatever the underlying factors, there is arguably a need, on both purely academic and general pedagogical grounds, to place the subject on a firmer footing and that is purpose of the present paper. Conceptual UnderpinningsAt the intuitive level, the notion of uncertainty does not pose serious difficulties. One may comfortably, albeit not necessarily with a high degree of precision, equate it with imperfect knowledge and proceed accordingly in exploring its ramifications (at this level, largely of a practical nature). Uncertainty in that context may be viewed as a 'residual' (what economists term a 'coefficient of ignorance') which defies explanation given prevailing institutional and technological constraints. Imperfect knowledge, and the uncertainty associated with it is, of course, a prominent feature of policy making.The problem essentially manifests itself in two forms. First, actors in the public arena cannot be entirely confident about the validity of the information at their disposal. In addition, that information is often incomplete, particularly from a forward-looking perspective. The second source of uncertainty renders strategy formulation a rather tentative exercise. The reason for this lies in the fact that policy direction is, inter alia, a function of the available information.

Teaching with experiments

“…Such first-hand exposure to how data are generated can reduce reification of scientific methods -qualitative or quantitative -promoting nuanced understandings about what different methods provide as well as the power and limits of research. This improved research literacy is especially valuable for practitioners trying to understand, prioritize and address policy challenges that are complex and characterized by uncertainty (Franke 2011;Mushkat 2003). Such first-person experiences also empower practitioner students to commission such research from a position of knowledge.…”

Interactive education in public administration (2)

“…These collective goods are typically less tangible and more complex, and therefore can be harder to define or measure, as well as lacking a common standard of value (e.g. money) to inform comparisons between alternative actions, requiring governments to weigh up ‘apples and oranges’, and also to cope with uncertainty (Franke, 2011; Mushkat, 2003). Public servants therefore need particular capabilities in qualitative as well as quantitative analysis to assist often tricky judgments about priorities and trade-offs.…”