Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

Chan, Wilson C. H.; Thompson, J. R.; Taylor, Richard G.; Nay, Alistair E.; Ayenew, Tenalem; MacDonald, Alan; Todd, Martin C.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2020.1767782

Cited by 23 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 71 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…This follows widely reported GCM-related uncertainty within the overall 'cascade of uncertainty' in climate change impacts (Wilby & Dessai 2010) for river systems around the world (e.g. Vetter et al 2015;Krysanova et al 2017;Chan et al 2020). As described by Thompson et al (2017), both increases and decreases in river discharge across the Upper Niger of varying magnitude are projected by the different GCM groups.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 73%

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

et al. 2021

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Modified water regimes due to climate change are likely to be a major cause of freshwater ecosystem alteration. General Circulation Model (GCM)-related uncertainty in environmental flows at 12 gauging stations in the Upper Niger Basin and flooding within the Inner Niger Delta is assessed using the Ecological Risk due to the Flow Alteration method and a hydrological model forced with projections from 12 GCM groups for RCP 4.5 in the 2050s and 2080s. Risk varies between GCM groups and stations. It increases into the future and is larger for changes in low flows compared to high flows. For the ensemble mean, a small minority of GCM groups projects no risk for high flows in the 2050s (low risk otherwise). This reverses for the 2080s. For low flows, no risk is limited to three stations in the 2050s and one station in the 2080s, the other experience either low or medium risk. There is greater consistency in the risk of change in flood extent, especially in the dry season (medium risk for all groups and the ensemble mean). Some (low or medium) risk of change in peak annual inundation is projected for most groups. Changing flood patterns have implications for wetland ecology and ecosystem services.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 73%

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

et al. 2021

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“…Water management in this basin is very poor and the amount of water abstraction for irrigation and other purpose is not registered. Due to the limited available information, such as water used for irrigation and for other sectors, required to accurately calibrate the model, most studies focus on the upper part of the basin (Chan et al, 2020;Gebrechorkos et al, 2019a;Mersha et al, 2018). Thus, the model accuracy decreases with an increase in drainage area (e.g., from Melka-Kuntrea to Tendaho) due to a large amount of water abstracted (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach

Gebrechorkos

Bernhofer

Hülsmann

2020

Science of The Total Environment

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“…In addition, future runoff predictions are often subject to large uncertainties due to choices made during the modeling process, e.g., GCMs, emission scenarios, hydrological models, different sources of data, etc. [23][24][25][26][27]69,70]. Research has indicated that the selection of scenarios can significantly affect watersheds with snowmelt [27], and the uncertainty associated with GCMs plays a crucial role in predicting high and average flows [69,70].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection and Analysis of Floods in the Upper Heihe River Basin under Climate Change

et al. 2023

Atmosphere

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The projection of future hydrological processes can provide insights into the risks associated with potential hydrological events in a changing environment and help develop strategies to cope with and prevent them. The Heihe River basin in Northwest China is crucial for providing water resources to water-scarce regions. Thus, understanding the future runoff trends in the context of climate change can optimize water allocation, alleviate water shortages, and mitigate flood risks in the region. In this study, we use meteorological data from 10 general circulation models under two future scenarios to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and project hydrological processes in the upper Heihe River basin from 2026 to 2100. After examining the future changes in total runoff in the basin, we assess the magnitude, frequency, and timing of daily flood events in the future. The results of the multi-model ensemble averaging (MMEA) method show that the change in the multi-year average annual runoff is −4.5% (2026–2050), −1.8% (2051–2075), and +2.0% (2076–2100) under the SSP245 scenario and −1.0% (2026–2050), +0.4% (2051–2075), and +0.2% (2076–2100) under the SSP585 scenario compared to the historical period. The analysis of flood magnitudes indicates that the basin will experience higher-magnitude floods in the future, with the largest increase rates of 61.9% and 66.4% for the 1-day maximum flows under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The flood return period is projected to be shorter in the future, and the 1-day maximum flows of a 100-year flood are expected to increase by 44.7% and 63.7% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, a significant shift in the flood timing is expected, with the highest frequency moving from July to August, representing a one-month lag compared to the historical period. Our findings suggest that the hydrological characteristics of the upper Heihe River basin may be significantly altered in the future due to the effects of climate change, resulting in floods with higher magnitudes and frequencies and different timings. Therefore, it is imperative to consider these changes carefully when developing risk prevention measures.

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Uncertainty assessment in river flow projections for Ethiopia’s Upper Awash Basin using multiple GCMs and hydrological models

Cited by 23 publications

References 71 publications

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

Impacts of climate change on environmental flows in West Africa's Upper Niger Basin and the Inner Niger Delta

Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach

Projection and Analysis of Floods in the Upper Heihe River Basin under Climate Change

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