Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology: A Case Study for the Central Highlands of Vietnam

Abstract

This paper focuses on quantifying the uncertainty in climate change and its impacts on hydrology in the Srepok watershed in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. The uncertainty associated with the general circulation model (GCM) structure from a subset of CMIP3 (CCCMA CGCM3.1, CSIRO Mk3.0, IPSL CM4, MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM30, UKMO HadGEM1, and UKMO HadCM3), SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2), and prescribed increases in global mean temperature (0.5-6°C) using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was investigated. For prescribed warming scenarios using HadCM3, linear decreases in mean annual streamflow ranged from 2.0 to 9.8 %. Differences in projected annual streamflow between SRES emission scenarios using HadCM3 were small (−3.8 to −3.3 %). Under the A1B scenario and 2°C increase in global mean temperature using seven GCMs, there was substantial disparity, of −3.7 to 21.0 % and −6.0 to 16.1 %, respectively. It was concluded that, in the case of the Srepok watershed, the most important source of uncertainty comes from the GCM structure rather than from the emission scenarios and climate sensitivity.

Assessing uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters originating from the application of an ensemble of ten global-regional climate model projections in a coastal ecosystem of the lagoon of Venice, Italy

“…Uncertainty assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. Studies make use of projections resulting from the adoption of multiple GCMs (Khoi and Hang, 2015), downscaling methods (Joseph et al, 2018), GHGs emission scenarios (Shen et al, 2018), and hydrological models (Teklesadik et al, 2017). However, in an ecosystem management context, what matters is how the biological component might respond to changes in climate and associated abiotic changes in the environment.…”

Hydrological Assessment of the 1973 Treaty on the Transboundary Helmand River, Using the SWAT Model and a Global Climate Database

“…The combination of CRU data and the SWAT model has been applied for a number of large catchments (Sulaiman et al 2015) and especially transboundary basins. For instance Schuol et al (2008); Abbaspour et al (2010); Xu et al (2011), and Khoi and Hang (2015) used them together for the African continent, Alberta (Canada), Yangtze and Yellow River basins (China) and the central highlands of Vietnam, respectively. Additionally, SWAT itself has been considered for hydrological evaluations of transboundary basins.…”