2019
DOI: 10.1049/iet-rpg.2019.0300
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Uncertainty‐aware forecast interval for hourly PV power output

Abstract: A forecast interval is effective for handling the forecast uncertainty in solar photovoltaic systems. In estimating the forecast interval, most available approaches apply an identical policy to all the point forecasts. This results in an inefficient interval (e.g. an unnecessarily wide interval for an accurate forecast). They also adopt a complex model and even require modification of the available deterministic forecasting model, which may adversely affect their application. To overcome these limitations, the… Show more

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Cited by 6 publications
(2 citation statements)
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References 25 publications
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“…Combining the fuzzy model and the wavelet neural network is presented in [12] to forecast the solar generation intervals for each time. In [13], an uncertainty metric, the dropout technique, and the deep learning structure are combined to construct PIs. Bayesian deep learning structure is used to predict point values, and the variational interface is used to construct PIs of large-scale solar generations in [14].…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Combining the fuzzy model and the wavelet neural network is presented in [12] to forecast the solar generation intervals for each time. In [13], an uncertainty metric, the dropout technique, and the deep learning structure are combined to construct PIs. Bayesian deep learning structure is used to predict point values, and the variational interface is used to construct PIs of large-scale solar generations in [14].…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In [20], an improved Markov chain is applied to forecast the quantiles of PV generation. In [21], the forecast uncertainty is calculated from an ensemble method based on the dropout technique of deep learning.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%