2014
DOI: 10.1177/1475090213515640
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Uncertainty in maritime risk analysis: Extended case study on chemical tanker collisions

Abstract: Uncertainty is inherent to risk analysis. Therefore, it is extremely important to properly address the issue of uncertainty. In the field of risk analysis for maritime transportation systems, the effect of uncertainty is rarely discussed or quantified. For this reason, this article discusses a case study dealing with risk analysis for a chemical spill in the Gulf of Finland and analyses the related uncertainties by adopting a systematic framework. Risk is assessed in terms of the expected spill frequency and s… Show more

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Cited by 33 publications
(34 citation statements)
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“…Goerlandt and Kujala (2014) reviewed the different methodological approaches for studying ship-ship collisions and found a low inter-method reliability among the approaches, thus highlighting the need for further research on refining the existing methods or developing new methods. Sormunen et al (2014) further discussed the uncertainty of using traffic simulation-based methods and highlighted that simulation methods should be improved for estimating how ship encounter scenarios develop into collision scenarios. Arguably, using real-world traffic movement data for understanding how the encounter scenarios develop into collision scenarios might help in reducing the uncertainty present in traffic simulation models.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Goerlandt and Kujala (2014) reviewed the different methodological approaches for studying ship-ship collisions and found a low inter-method reliability among the approaches, thus highlighting the need for further research on refining the existing methods or developing new methods. Sormunen et al (2014) further discussed the uncertainty of using traffic simulation-based methods and highlighted that simulation methods should be improved for estimating how ship encounter scenarios develop into collision scenarios. Arguably, using real-world traffic movement data for understanding how the encounter scenarios develop into collision scenarios might help in reducing the uncertainty present in traffic simulation models.…”
mentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The results of previous studies (EMSA 2010, Hänninen & Rytkönen 2006, Bogalecka & Popek 2008, Mullai et al 2009, Suominen & Suhonen 2007 indicate that both the spill risks and chemical incidents are not as welldefined than those concerning oils. The expected spill frequency and spill volumes caused by ship-chemical tanker collisions in the Gulf of Finland (GoF) collision probability are much less in case of chemical tankers than in case of oil tankers (Sormunen et al 2011, Sormunen et al 2014. Nevertheless, among the wide range of chemicals transported, the potency to cause environmental damage cannot be overlooked.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Meanwhile SD could be regarded as a factor for determining the width of a fairway . However, there is still highly uncertain in the definition of Ship Domain and vessel encounter Sormunen et al, 2014).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%