Uncertainty in Predictions of Fallout Radionuclides in Foods and of Subsequent Ingestion

Abstract

Uncertainty in predictions from the PATHWAY food-chain model was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. Uncertainty estimates, measured by the geometric standard deviation (GSD), were obtained for median values of time-integrated concentrations of 131I, 136Cs, and 137Cs in foods and for the corresponding time-integrated intakes resulting from ingestion of all foods. The GSDs associated with a given food for the two short-lived radionuclides, 131I and 136Cs, were not significantly different, but they differed from the GSDs for the longer-lived radionuclide. The GSDs for integrated concentrations of radionuclides in milk varied with the time of year fallout was deposited, but uncertainty for nondairy products was relatively independent of the date of fallout deposition. The estimated GSDs were applied to other radionuclides of interest based on physical half-life and ranged from 1.7 to 2.7 for time-integrated intake across all foods for radionuclides with physical half-lives less than 30 d, from 1.8 to 2.3 for half-lives ranging from 30 to 500 d, and from 1.9 to 2.1 when half-lives were greater than 500 d.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis: Food chain uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

“…'These, along with the biomass values, were used to compute Fi quantiles based on the Chamberlain (1970) equation. Other literature consulted was Pinder (1988) and Breshears et al (1989).…”

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator using system dynamics methodology

“…i H i e R 1 (2) ,where H i represents the cumulative hazard of early health effect. It can be modeled by a weibull function as follows.…”

“…The risk from a severe accident for a reference plant used to be assessed by performing level 3 probabilistic safety assessment. The potential magnitude of radionuclide releases under severe accident loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk are quantitatively evaluated in this study [1][2][3].…”

Environmental Influences on the 137Cs Kinetics of the Yellow‐Bellied Turtle (Trachemys Scripta)

“…1986, Anspaugh eta!. As a result, numerous studies have attempted to quantify the uptake, cycling, and distribution of various radionuclides in the environment, as well as to assess their uncertainties in estimating human doses (e.g., Whicker and Kirchner 1987, Anspaugh et al 1988, Breshears et al 1989, 1992. When such releases occur, consumption of domestic animals and wildlife inhabiting the contaminated area can become an important pathway for human exposure (Jenkins and Fendley 1968, Jenkins et al 1969, Whicker 1983, Whicker et al 1990a.…”