Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China’s power sector

Zhou, Weisheng; Zhu, Bing; Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayová, Jana; Obersteiner, Michael; Fei, Weiyang

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.01.013

Cited by 152 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Most of the analysed publications on CCS in China take sufficient storage potential for granted or refer to literature sources that suggest a large effective storage capacity [32]. In contrast, the present analysis shows the high uncertainty inherent in existing storage capacity assessments, thus confirming the lack of knowledge, also stated in [11,25]. This would have direct implications on the results given in the scenario analyses and roadmaps, since large-scale CCS would become more difficult and costly [96].…”

Section: Overall Results and Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 50%

“…There were therefore very few onedimensional assessments, most of which focused on public acceptance and life cycle analysis (LCA). An increasing number of authors refer to the uncertainties and challenges faced by CCS, such as increased energy and water consumption, inadequate storage capacities or potential CO 2 leakages, which could hamper the large-scale deployment of CCS [8][9][10][11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment

2015

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Objective The aim of the present article is to conduct an integrated assessment in order to explore whether CCS could be a viable technological option for significantly reducing future CO 2 emissions in China.Methods In this paper, an integrated approach covering five assessment dimensions is chosen.Each dimension is investigated using specific methods (graphical abstract). ResultsThe most crucial precondition that must be met is a reliable storage capacity assessment based on site-specific geological data. Our projection of different trends of coal-based power plant capacities up to 2050 ranges between 34 and 221 Gt of CO 2 that may be captured from coal-fired power plants to be built by 2050. If very optimistic assumptions about the country's CO 2 storage potential are applied, 192 Gt of CO 2 could theoretically be stored as a result of matching these sources with suitable sinks. If a cautious approach is taken, this figure falls to 29 Gt of CO 2 . In practice, this potential will decrease further with the impact of technical, legal, economic and social acceptance factors. Further constraints may be the delayed commercial availability of CCS in China; a significant barrier to achieving the economic viability of CCS due to a currently non-existing nation-wide CO 2 pricing scheme that generates a sufficiently strong price signal; an expected life-cycle reduction rate of the power plant's greenhouse gas emissions of 59 to 60%; and an increase in most other negative environmental and social impacts. Conclusion and practice implicationsMost experts expect a striking dominance of coal-fired power generation in the country's electricity sector, even if the recent trend towards a flattened deployment of coal capacity and reduced annual growth rates of coal-fired generation proves to be true in the future. In order to reduce fossil fuel-related CO 2 emissions to a level that would be consistent with the long-term climate protection target of the international community to

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Section: Overall Results and Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 50%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment

2015

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“…16,17 For China, these models mainly focus on the management of coal as a main future energy source because of its current predominance in the country's electricity mix. 16,18,19 Existing studies that use an optimization model to identify the best pathways for long-term electricity mix transition 20−24 have low geographical and temporal resolutions that are often limited to national scale and annual demand, therefore not accounting for the crucial role of electricity transmission as well as the short-time-scale variability of renewable energy. For the exploration of the realistic management of energy generation and transmission assets, a new generation of big-data models is needed.…”

Section: ■ Materials and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System

Avrin²,

Nelson

et al. 2016

Environ. Sci. Technol.

140

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ABSTRACT:We present an integrated model, SWITCHChina, of the Chinese power sector with which to analyze the economic and technological implications of a medium to longterm decarbonization scenario while accounting for very-shortterm renewable variability. On the basis of the model and assumptions used, we find that the announced 2030 carbon peak can be achieved with a carbon price of ∼$40/tCO 2 . Current trends in renewable energy price reductions alone are insufficient to replace coal; however, an 80% carbon emission reduction by 2050 is achievable in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Target Scenario with an optimal electricity mix in 2050 including nuclear (14%), wind (23%), solar (27%), hydro (6%), gas (1%), coal (3%), and carbon capture and sequestration coal energy (26%). The co-benefits of carbon-price strategy would offset 22% to 42% of the increased electricity costs if the true cost of coal and the social cost of carbon are incorporated. In such a scenario, aggressive attention to research and both technological and financial innovation mechanisms are crucial to enabling the transition at a reasonable cost, along with strong carbon policies.

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“…The most effective way is to capture CO 2 from the flue gases and store it. This can reduce carbon emissions by 65-70%, but due to high cost of this technology, and because so far only laboratory size CCS devices are available, CCS technologies have not yet found wide application in the industry [30]. Additionally to high cost of the CCS technologies, Roddy [31] analysed the development of CO 2 networks which can accommodate CO 2 emissions from industrial facilities.…”

Section: Mitigation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing the CO2 emissions in Croatian cement industry

2013

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a b s t r a c tCement industry is one of the largest carbon emitting industrial sectors. It is responsible for about 5% of anthropogenic CO 2 in the world. Therefore, it is a relevant industrial sector for CO 2 emission regulation strategies. Bearing in mind the importance of cement industry in Croatia, and because of the fact that Croatia will soon become an EU member state, the present paper analyses the potential to reduce CO 2 emission in the Croatian cement industry. There are several measures that can reduce CO 2 emissions from the cement manufacturing process: the use of waste heat as an alternative source of energy; CO 2 capture and storage technologies; reduction of clinker to cement ratio; the use of alternative and biomass fuels; the use of alternative raw materials; an energy efficient combustion process. The most energy efficient technology for cement manufacturing today is the use of a rotary kiln together with a multi-stage preheater and a calciner. Since the use of cement calciners is a relatively new technology, further improvement of their operating conditions is still needed. This paper also highlights the results of research in the field of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations that are used for the investigation of process and combustion emissions. The above mentioned measures together with numerical investigations can reduce the effect of cement manufacturing in Croatia on the environment and can make it more competitive with cement manufacturers from the EU.

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Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China’s power sector

Cited by 152 publications

References 20 publications

Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment

Prospects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in China’s power sector – An integrated assessment

SWITCH-China: A Systems Approach to Decarbonizing China’s Power System

Reducing the CO2 emissions in Croatian cement industry

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