Uncertainty of Outcome Is Higher in the Champions League Than in the European Cup

Abstract

European Cup football has experienced a major change in format with the introduction of the Champions League (CL) in 1992 and a major change in admission rules with direct qualification for multiple teams from the highest ranked leagues in 1999. We show that, in line with popular press reports and other studies, qualification in lower rounds has become more predictable in the CL. At the same time, however, outcomes at later stages have become less predictable. We provide evidence and an explanation.

Bibliometric indices as a measure of long-term competitive balance in knockout tournaments

“…The stability of competitive balance in the last two decades support the finding of Schokkaert and Swinnen (2016) and can be explained by the qualification rules of the UEFA Champions League that allow multiple teams from the major leagues to compete. This trend partially contradicts the expected effects of free labour markets in European soccer, which should have increased the inequality of results among clubs (Milanovic, 2005).…”

Talent development and labour market integration in European football

“…The first was that direct qualification for multiple clubs from the highest ranked leagues was allowed. Schokkaert and Swinnen (2014) show that this new tournament structure made highly ranked clubs more likely to qualify for the round of 16 in the CL. The second change was that a new revenue distribution system based on performance and participation and on the relative value of the broadcasting market was introduced.…”

“…The second change was that a new revenue distribution system based on performance and participation and on the relative value of the broadcasting market was introduced. The new system favours successful clubs from large football countries who receive a larger share of the revenues in CL (Schokkaert & Swinnen, 2014).…”

“…Several factors can explain these opposite trends, for instance, migration of star players to the big leagues (Ichniowski & Preston, 2014), increased affluence of the CL, and, changed format of the tournaments (Schokkaert & Swinnen, 2014). However, the Bosman ruling in 1995 is arguably the starting point.…”

Performance analysis of professional soccer goalkeepers by Composition of Probabilistic Preferences

“…Soccer is considered one of the most unpredictable among all sports (Schokkaert and Swinnen, 2016;Pawlowski et al, 2018). In addition, performance data available from open sources are not systematized in all matches and competitions, while human observation procedures and manual notation are available for recording and posting data on web sites.…”