Unconstrained Extraction of Fossil Fuels and Implication for Carbon Budgets under Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Hubbert's curve was first introduced to project future oil reserves and production in the US. In this paper, Hubbert's logistic function was used to estimate future production of fossil fuels in different regions of the world. The aim is to adequately fit historical data with minimum error, calculate the projected CO2 emissions that emerge from the unconstrained extraction of coal, oil and natural gas, and hence to determine the consumption of the available carbon budget. For some of the world regions considered, Hubbert's logistic function fits the data well, while others fail to fall under the bell-shaped curve due to factors not considered in the analysis, such as political decisions to restrict production. An overshoot of the carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 o C is expected by 2050 in the case of unconstrained production of all fuels, with major contributors being Asia & Pacific regions for coal, the Middle East for oil, and North America for natural gas. In the case of a 2 o C global warming scenario, the same major contributors again consume the available budget by 2040 except for natural gas production that stays below the threshold. This analysis emphasizes the importance of capturing and storing carbon dioxide emissions, and/or artificial limits on fossil fuel production to prevent dangerous climate change.

Recent advances in sustainable and safe marine engine operation with alternative fuels

“…Conventional fuels used in the maritime sector include marine gas oil, marine diesel oil, and heavy fuel oil, the combustion of which releases a significant amount of emissions (Streibel, et al, 2017), (Corbett & Winebrake, 2008), (Nabi & Hustad, 2010). According to (Karvounis & Blunt, 2021), the unconstrained production and utilisation of conventional fossil fuels may result in reaching the available carbon budget much earlier than expected, intensifying climate change implications. Thus, the development and adoption of emission-free fuels are essential.…”